Serie A
São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro
09/05/2026, 09:30 PM
预期进球
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%2:1
9%0:1
8%xG 分解
São Paulo
Atlético Mineiro
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
40%
平局
31%
客胜
29%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
71%
客胜或平局
60%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
50%
否
50%
关键因素
- Form trend: Atlético Mineiro enters the match unbeaten in 5 games (WDWDW) while São Paulo won only 1 of their last 5 matches (DLDLW)
- Offensive boost: Atlético Mineiro is currently scoring more frequently (2.3 recent goals average) than their season average of 1.4 goals
- Tactical parallel: Both teams averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches
风险因素
- Absence of starting goalkeeper E. Marques Pires weakens the defense of Atlético Mineiro
- Jonathan Calleri (7 goals, 1 assist) is missing from the squad for São Paulo
- São Paulo's goal scoring has slowed down recently to an average of 1.0 compared to their season average of 1.2
概述
São Paulo (11th place, 30 points) host Atlético Mineiro (8th place, 36 points)
Match at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo on September 5, 2026, 10:30 PM
Mathematical model predicts home win probability at 40%
近期状态
São Paulo form curve is DLDLW with 1 win in their last 5 matches
Atlético Mineiro is unbeaten in 5 matches with form WDWDW (3 wins, 2 draws)
Both teams recorded a home win in their most recent fixture
统计数据
São Paulo average 1.21 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game
In home matches their defense is stable with only 0.67 goals conceded per game
Atlético Mineiro score 1.30 goals and concede 1.40 goals on average away from home
São Paulo's overall season stats show 10 over 2.5 goals matches
历史交锋
5 head-to-head matches in recent seasons
Atlético Mineiro lead the record with 2 wins compared to 1 win for São Paulo
The last encounter on March 18, 2026 ended in a 1-0 win for Atlético Mineiro
关键球员
Luciano scores 7 goals and provides 2 assists with a rating of 7.06
Marcos Antônio contributes 1 goal and 2 assists with a rating of 7.04
Tomás Cuello shines with 4 goals and an average rating of 7.09
Reinier has 3 goals and 2 assists during this campaign
门将
Rafael is in goal for São Paulo and played 24 matches with a rating of 6.74
São Paulo record 4 clean sheets this season
Gabriel Delfim represents Atlético Mineiro with only 1 appearance and a rating of 6.75
Atlético Mineiro kept 6 clean sheets overall during this campaign
影响因素
São Paulo benefit from home advantage at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo
The stadium history shows an average of 2.8 goals per match
Both teams scored in all 5 home games recorded in the dataset (100% BTTS rate)