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Serie A

Palmeiras - São Paulo

09/12/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Palmeiras
1.2
Total xG
2.1
São Paulo
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
xG 分解
PALSP

Palmeiras

防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.59
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.17
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第10位, 相差8位)
+0.05
Mauricio替补席 (7球, 1助攻)
Allan未进大名单 (4球, 3助攻)
Marlon Freitas未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
17%进球产出缺失 (仅93%可用)

São Paulo

排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第2位, 相差8位)
-0.08
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
-0.02
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.01
Luciano未进大名单 (8球, 2助攻)
Jonathan Calleri 替补席 (7球, 1助攻)
Artur替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Marcos Antônio替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Sabino替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Danielzinho替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Lucas Ramon替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
66%进球产出缺失 (仅38%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

32%

客胜

25%

进球数

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

75%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

68%

双方进球

43%

57%

关键因素
  • Extreme squad depletion for São Paulo: only 38% of the seasonal goal threat is active, with top scorers Luciano (8 goals) and Jonathan Calleri (7 goals) missing from the lineup
  • Palmeiras averaged 4.6 shots on target per game with 55.6% possession in recent matches
  • Historical dominance for the home side with 4 wins out of the last 5 direct duels against São Paulo
风险因素
  • São Paulo concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game this season
  • A low-scoring match is likely: the prediction model calculates only a 36% probability for Over 2.5 goals
  • Limited data availability on injured or suspended players for Palmeiras in the provided dataset
概述

Palmeiras (2nd place, 53 points) host local rivals São Paulo (10th place, 33 points) at the Allianz Parque

Serie A clash on September 12, 2026, 9:30 PM

The home side fights for crucial points in the title race

近期状态

Palmeiras has a form curve of DLWDD with two consecutive draws at the end

The home team recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

São Paulo shows a form of LDLWW with two wins in a row

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Palmeiras scores an average of 1.73 goals per game and concedes 0.81 goals

At home, Palmeiras concedes only 0.75 goals per game

São Paulo averages 1.24 goals scored per game but concedes 2.0 goals away from home

São Paulo's defense shows major struggles in away matches

历史交锋

Palmeiras dominates the head-to-head record with 4 wins in the last 5 matches

São Paulo failed to win any of those games, recording 1 draw

The last match on March 22, 2026, ended in a 1:0 victory for Palmeiras

关键球员

Andreas Pereira has contributed 11 assists in 25 appearances in midfield

José Manuel López stands out in attack with 8 goals and rising form

Jhon Arias supports the offense with 4 goals and 3 assists this season

门将

Carlos Miguel has played 25 games for Palmeiras, keeping 10 clean sheets

Carlos Coronel has no documented appearances for São Paulo this season

Palmeiras holds a statistical advantage in goal stability

影响因素

Palmeiras' home advantage is strong with only 9 goals conceded in 12 home matches

The venue history averages 2.2 goals per match

The match will be played on grass

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