Serie A
Grêmio - Vasco da Gama
09/12/2026, 07:00 PM
预期进球
1.0
2.5
1.4
1:1
14%0:1
10%0:0
10%1:2
9%0:2
9%xG 分解
Grêmio
Vasco da Gama
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
26%
平局
30%
客胜
44%
进球数
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
双重机会
主胜或平局
56%
客胜或平局
74%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
51%
否
49%
关键因素
- Strong home defense vs weak away defense: Grêmio concedes only 0.74 goals on average at home, while Vasco allows 2.20 goals per away match
- Squad concerns for Grêmio: Key players such as Cristian Pavón (2G/4A) and Gustavo Martins (2G/2A) are missing from the lineup
- Statistical model advantage: The model calculates a 74% probability for Vasco da Gama to avoid defeat
风险因素
- Defensive instability for Vasco da Gama: An average of 2.20 goals conceded per away game burdens the visitors
- Struggling Grêmio offense: Recently averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game and a goal rate of 1.0 compared to the season average of 1.2
概述
Grêmio (15th place, 28 points) hosts Vasco da Gama (17th place, 25 points) at the Arena do Grêmio
Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 7:00 PM
Crucial bottom-of-the-table clash for survival
近期状态
Grêmio form: WLLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 matches
Vasco da Gama form: DLLWL
1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently
统计数据
Grêmio scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.32 goals per match
Vasco da Gama averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded
Grêmio is defensively stable at home with only 0.74 goals conceded on average
Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game
历史交锋
Balanced historical record with 5 head-to-head matches
2 wins for each team and 1 draw
Goal difference of 6:5 in favor of Grêmio
Last encounter ended 2-1 in favor of Vasco da Gama
关键球员
Carlos Vinícius is Grêmio's top forward with 10 goals and a 6.91 average rating
Weverton stabilizes the goal with an average rating of 6.96
Tchê Tchê contributes 2 goals in midfield for Vasco da Gama
门将
Weverton has kept 5 clean sheets this season for Grêmio
Léo Jardim has kept 2 clean sheets so far for Vasco da Gama
影响因素
Home advantage for Grêmio at their stadium
The Arena do Grêmio sees high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals per match
Both teams scored in all 5 recorded home matches at this venue