🇧🇷

Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense

09/12/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Atlético Mineiro
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Fluminense
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
xG 分解
AMFLU

Atlético Mineiro

状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.13
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
+0.02
Alan Minda替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Renan Lodi替补席 (0球, 3助攻)
Ruan未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)

Fluminense

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.71倍)
-0.36
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.14
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球)
+0.12
状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.12
Hulk 未进大名单 (4球, 1助攻)
Ignácio未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Renê替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Martinelli替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Guga未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
Yeferson Soteldo未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.6球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

41%

平局

33%

客胜

27%

进球数

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

74%

客胜或平局

59%

非平局

67%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • Tactical advantage: Fluminense averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Form gap: Fluminense is unbeaten in their last 5 games while Atlético Mineiro lost their last game
  • Offensive trend: Both teams currently score more frequently than their season average according to advancedStats
风险因素
  • Away defense: Fluminense concedes 1.8 goals per away match on average
  • Squad depth: Atlético Mineiro is missing key squad members like Alan Minda and Renan Lodi
  • Low expected goals: The model predicts a close match with 1.22 to 0.93 expected goals
概述

Atlético Mineiro (8th place, 36 points) host Fluminense (4th place, 45 points) at the Arena MRV

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 7:00 PM

Crucial clash for the top positions in the table

近期状态

Atlético Mineiro form: DWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently suffered a 0-2 defeat against São Paulo

Fluminense is unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of DWWDW

The visitors won their last match 1-0 against Vasco da Gama

统计数据

Atlético Mineiro averages 1.28 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match

Fluminense averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded overall

Atlético Mineiro scores 1.27 goals per home match

Fluminense concedes an average of 1.80 goals in away games

历史交锋

5 head-to-head matches

Fluminense dominates the recent history with 3 wins to Atlético Mineiro's 1 win and 1 draw

The last match ended in a 1-0 win for Fluminense on March 21, 2026

关键球员

Tomás Cuello (4 goals, 1 assist, 7.04 rating) and Reinier (3 goals, 2 assists, 6.94 rating) lead the hosts

Bernard is also key with 2 goals and 3 assists

For Fluminense, Agustín Canobbio (5 goals, 3 assists, 7.04 rating) and Luciano Acosta (4 goals, 4 assists, 7.16 rating) stand out

Jefferson Savarino contributed 3 goals and 2 assists

门将

Gabriel Delfim has 2 appearances for the hosts with an average rating of 6.54

Fábio is the established number 1 for Fluminense with 26 appearances and a 6.91 rating

影响因素

Home advantage for Atlético Mineiro at the Arena MRV on grass

Matches at the Arena MRV have averaged 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of these matches

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。