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Serie A

Flamengo - Corinthians

09/13/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Flamengo
1.3
Total xG
1.9
Corinthians
0.6
最可能的比分

1:0

17%

0:0

16%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
FLACOR

Flamengo

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.70
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.13
状态上升 (2.4 vs 2 赛季平均)
+0.13
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第13位, 相差11位)
+0.07
Jorge Carrascal替补席 (5球, 6助攻)
Jorginho替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Léo Pereira未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)

Corinthians

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.64倍)
-0.66
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.09
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第2位, 相差11位)
-0.08
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.07
Rodrigo Garro替补席 (3球, 6助攻)
Matheus Bidu替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Matheuzinho替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Breno Bidon替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Kaio César替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Gustavo Henrique未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
63%进球产出缺失 (仅23%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

32%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

双重机会

主胜或平局

83%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

68%

双方进球

36%

64%

关键因素
  • Critical squad impact for Corinthians: only 24% of the usual starting line-up goal threat is active with key players like Rodrigo Garro and Matheus Bidu missing
  • Clear difference in form with Flamengo winning four of their last five matches while Corinthians suffered four consecutive defeats recently
  • Flamengo's offensive home strength averaging 2.0 goals per game meets Corinthians' weak away form
风险因素
  • Low goal expectations based on the model showing only a 30% probability for over 2.5 goals in this match
  • The last head-to-head encounter ended in a 1-1 draw
概述

Second-placed Flamengo host thirteenth-placed Corinthians at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Serie A match on September 13, 2026, 5:30 PM

Flamengo with 54 points fight for the top spot while Corinthians with 32 points sit in the midfield

The home team enters as clear favorites

近期状态

Flamengo show strong form with the form string WLWWW

The hosts recently celebrated three consecutive wins and won four of their last five games

Corinthians are in a crisis with the form string WLLLL

The visitors suffered four consecutive defeats recently and managed only one win in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Flamengo average 1.96 goals scored and only 0.81 goals conceded per game this season

On home turf their average rises to 2.0 goals scored with only 0.67 goals conceded per match

Corinthians record an average of 1.04 goals scored and 1.04 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home the visitors average 1.00 goal scored and 1.08 goals conceded

The hosts' offensive stats are significantly stronger

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head matches Flamengo celebrated three wins while Corinthians won once

The goal difference stands at 10-4 in favor of the home team

The last meeting on March 22, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

Flamengo dominate the recent historical record in this matchup

关键球员

Pedro has registered 15 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.29 this season

Samuel Lino shines with 9 goals and 7 assists with an average rating of 7.32

Giorgian de Arrascaeta contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this term

On the visitors' side Raniele has scored 2 goals with an average rating of 6.96

Tchoca has 1 goal in just 4 appearances with a rating of 7.22

Dieguinho completes the lineup with 1 goal in 14 matches

门将

Agustín Rossi in Flamengo's goal played 26 league matches and kept 12 clean sheets

Hugo Souza was in goal 22 times for Corinthians and recorded 10 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Historical venue statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the matches at this venue

Both teams scored in 40% of the past encounters here

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