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Serie A

Vitória - Cruzeiro

09/20/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 3
预期进球
Vitória
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Cruzeiro
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
VITCRU

Vitória

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.69倍)
-0.17
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第6位, 相差7位)
-0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.02
11%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)

Cruzeiro

防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.36
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.09
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第13位, 相差7位)
+0.05
Lucas Romero未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

33%

平局

30%

客胜

37%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

63%

客胜或平局

67%

非平局

70%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • Tactical offensive trend: Cruzeiro scored more goals recently (averaged 1.8 goals) compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Historical dominance: Cruzeiro won three of the last five direct meetings, while Vitória failed to secure any victory
  • Balanced probabilities: The mathematical model suggests a tight encounter with a 37% win chance for Cruzeiro and 33% for Vitória
风险因素
  • Away vulnerability: Cruzeiro concedes a high average of 2.30 goals per match on the road
  • Not nominated: Lucas Romero is missing from Cruzeiro's midfield (2 goals and 3 assists this season)
  • Home defensive strength: Vitória concedes an extremely low average of 0.53 goals per game on home soil
概述

Vitória (13th place, 33 points) host Cruzeiro (6th place, 42 points)

Serie A match at Estádio Manoel Barradas on September 20, 2026, 7:00 PM

Mathematical models suggest an evenly balanced matchup with a slight advantage for the visitors

近期状态

Vitória shows a stable trend with recent form of WLLWD

Cruzeiro displays a positive form trend with WWLWL

The hosts achieved two wins and one draw in their last five matches

The visitors secured three wins over the same period

统计数据

Vitória scores 1.00 goal and concedes 1.44 goals per game on average this season

At home their defense is solid, conceding only 0.53 goals per match

Cruzeiro averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game

The visitors concede an average of 2.30 goals per away match

历史交锋

Cruzeiro dominated the last five direct meetings with three wins and two draws

Vitória failed to secure a single victory during this period

The last head-to-head match ended in a clear 3-0 win for Cruzeiro

The overall goal difference in these meetings stands at 11:4 in favor of Cruzeiro

关键球员

Renê leads the home attack with 8 goals

Erick contributed 3 goals and 5 assists in 25 appearances

Matheuzinho has scored 3 goals so far this season

Matheus Pereira is the key playmaker for the visitors with 8 goals and 4 assists

Kaio Jorge has already scored 7 goals in 20 matches

Keny Arroyo has recorded 3 goals and 2 assists

门将

Lucas Arcanjo guards Vitória's goal, carrying a season rating of 7.10

Otávio Costa is between the posts for Cruzeiro, averaging 6.84

The home team has kept 10 clean sheets this season

The visiting side secured 5 clean sheets during the campaign

影响因素

The match is played on natural grass at Estádio Manoel Barradas

The stadium history average stands at 1.8 goals per match

In Vitória's last five home matches, both teams never scored simultaneously

Vitória draws strength mainly from their compact home record with only 9 goals conceded in 17 matches

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