Serie A
Grêmio - Palmeiras
09/20/2026, 02:00 PM
预期进球
0.8
2.6
1.8
1:1
12%0:2
12%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
6%xG 分解
Grêmio
Palmeiras
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
16%
平局
26%
客胜
58%
进球数
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
双重机会
主胜或平局
42%
客胜或平局
84%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
48%
否
52%
关键因素
- Offensive Power: Palmeiras' strong away attack (1.71 goals) meets an unstable Grêmio defense (1.41 conceded)
- Form Gap: Grêmio suffered four defeats in five matches, whereas Palmeiras remains highly stable
- Model Lean: The mathematical model indicates a strong advantage for the visitors with a 58% win probability
风险因素
- Hosts' Home Defense: Grêmio defends tightly at home, conceding only 0.8 goals per match
- Venue Trend: Both teams scored in all 5 recorded home matches at this arena with a high average of 3.2 goals
概述
Grêmio (17th place, 28 points) hosts Palmeiras (2nd place, 56 points) at the Arena do Grêmio
Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 2:00 PM
Crucial points at stake for the hosts in the relegation battle against the title contenders
近期状态
Grêmio is in weak form with four defeats in their last five matches
Form string: LWLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)
Palmeiras looks more stable following a recent win against São Paulo
Form string: LWDDW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Palmeiras boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.78 goals per game this season
On the road, the visitors score an average of 1.71 goals per match
Grêmio concedes 1.41 goals on average while scoring 1.11 goals
At home, Grêmio's defense is significantly stronger, conceding only 0.8 goals per game
历史交锋
Palmeiras dominates the head-to-head record with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings
The hosts managed 1 win and 1 draw during this period
The last encounter on April 3, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Palmeiras
关键球员
Carlos Vinícius leads Grêmio's attack with 10 league goals
Cristian Pavón has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists so far
Gustavo Martins stabilizes the defense with a season rating of 7.09
Not nominated for Grêmio: Tetê (2 goals, 1 assist)
Andreas Pereira is the main playmaker for Palmeiras with 11 assists
José Manuel López has already registered 8 goals and 4 assists
Vitor Roque contributed 5 goals and 1 assist
Not nominated for Palmeiras: Mauricio (7 goals, 1 assist), Murilo (2 goals, 1 assist)
门将
Weverton played 25 matches for Grêmio with a rating of 6.95
Grêmio kept 5 clean sheets so far this season
Carlos Miguel featured in 26 games for Palmeiras with a rating of 7.01
Palmeiras secured 11 clean sheets in this campaign
影响因素
The match will be played on natural grass at the Arena do Grêmio
The venue history shows an average of 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in all 5 recorded home matches at this stadium
Grêmio benefits from a solid home defense, conceding only 0.8 goals per match