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Serie A

Flamengo - Bragantino

09/20/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Flamengo
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Bragantino
0.8
最可能的比分

2:0

12%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
FLABRA

Flamengo

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.71
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
+0.52
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第10位, 相差9位)
+0.08
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.05
Samuel Lino未进大名单 (9球, 7助攻)
Lucas Paquetá未进大名单 (5球, 0助攻)
Erick Pulgar未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
23%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)

Bragantino

排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第1位, 相差9位)
-0.08
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.02
Juninho Capixaba未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻)
José Herrera替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

62%

平局

24%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

38%

非平局

76%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Tactical dominance: Flamengo controlled recent matches with 60% possession and averaged 5.6 shots on target per game
  • Home field strength: The league leaders averaged 2.0 goals scored and only 0.69 conceded per home match this season
  • Form advantage: The model calculates a 62% home win probability, backed by four consecutive home wins for Flamengo
风险因素
  • Squad absences: Samuel Lino (9 goals, 7 assists), Lucas Paquetá (5 goals), and Erick Pulgar are missing from the squad
  • Away threat: Bragantino has been offensively dangerous in recent matches, averaging 6.0 shots on target per game
概述

Flamengo (1st place, 57 points) host Bragantino (10th place, 36 points) at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 9:30 PM

League leaders Flamengo enter the match as clear favorites

近期状态

Flamengo show strong form with four wins in their last five matches

Home team form string: LWWWW

Bragantino managed only one win in their last five games

Away team form string: DWLLD

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Flamengo scored an average of 1.96 goals per game this season

The home team conceded an average of only 0.81 goals per match

Bragantino average 1.23 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game

In home matches, Flamengo average 2.0 goals scored and 0.69 goals conceded

Bragantino concede an average of 1.36 goals per away match

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo secured 3 wins, with 1 draw and 1 win for Bragantino

The last meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Bragantino on April 3, 2026

Goal difference stands at 8:6 in favor of Flamengo

关键球员

Pedro scored 15 goals and provided 5 assists in 27 matches

Jorge Carrascal recorded 5 goals and 6 assists in 21 games

Giorgian de Arrascaeta contributed 3 goals and 4 assists in 20 appearances

Lucas Barbosa scored 5 goals and registered 2 assists in 24 games

Isidro Pitta found the net 5 times and provided 2 assists in 23 appearances

Fernando scored 3 goals and added 1 assist in 13 games

门将

Agustín Rossi guards the goal for Flamengo and kept 12 clean sheets this season

Tiago Volpi plays as goalkeeper for Bragantino and achieved 8 clean sheets

影响因素

Flamengo benefits from extreme home strength with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.69 conceded in their stadium

The match will be played on natural grass at the legendary Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

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