Serie A
Athletico PR - Bahia
09/20/2026, 10:30 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.7
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
Athletico PR
Bahia
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
43%
平局
28%
客胜
29%
进球数
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
双重机会
主胜或平局
71%
客胜或平局
57%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
56%
否
44%
关键因素
- Extreme squad impact: Athletico PR will miss Kevin Viveros (18 goals), João Cruz (2 goals), and Gastón Benavídez (1 goal), leaving only 51% of their regular starting goalscoring threat available
- Strong form of the visitors: Bahia travels with excellent momentum of four wins in their last five matches (DWWWW), whereas the hosts managed only one win during this span
- Head-to-head dominance: Bahia is unbeaten in the last three direct encounters and celebrated a clear 3-0 victory in the most recent match
风险因素
- Defensive decline: Athletico PR conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, significantly higher than their season average of 1.24
- Severely weakened attack: Without the suspended top scorer Kevin Viveros, the hosts lose their most potent threat in offense
概述
Direct duel in the upper third of the Serie A table
Athletico PR (4th place, 46 points) host Bahia (5th place, 46 points)
The venue is the Arena de Baixada on September 20, 2026, at 10:30 PM
Both teams are tied on points and fighting to stay close to the very top
The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 43%
近期状态
Athletico PR is showing inconsistent form with a DWDLD record
Bahia travels with a strong run of four consecutive wins and a DWWWW record
The visitors earned 13 out of 15 possible points from their last five matches
Athletico PR managed only a single victory in this period
Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Athletico PR is defensively stable at home, conceding only 10 goals in 15 home matches
Bahia is dangerous on the road, averaging 1.54 goals scored per away game
The home side recently averaged 6.6 shots on target per match
Bahia recently dominated possession, averaging 58% in recent matches
Both teams scored in 18 of Bahia's 27 matches this season
历史交锋
Bahia dominates the recent direct record with 2 wins out of 3 duels
Athletico PR is still waiting for their first victory against this opponent
The last head-to-head encounter ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Bahia on April 1, 2026
In 3 duels, Bahia scored a total of 7 goals while Athletico PR only scored twice
关键球员
Lucas Esquivel scored 1 goal and provided 5 assists in 18 appearances
Stiven Mendoza has 5 goals and 1 assist in 27 games
Leozinho has already scored 4 times in 13 league matches
Luciano Juba has impressed with 9 goals and 1 assist in 23 games
Rodrigo Nestor contributed 1 goal and 4 assists in 20 matches
Alejo Veliz has already scored 3 goals in just 8 matches
门将
Goalkeeper Mycael played 3 matches with an average rating of 6.40 for the hosts
Ronaldo guarded Bahia's goal in 18 matches with a strong rating of 7.13
Both teams have recorded 8 clean sheets each this season
影响因素
The match will be played on the natural grass of the Arena de Baixada
An average of 2.6 goals per match were scored in recent games at this venue
Both the hosts' strong home defense with only 0.67 goals conceded per home game and Bahia's away goals will impact the game