比赛报告 →
Bahia – Mirassol1 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Bahia
1.90
总 xG
2.82
Mirassol
0.91
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Bahia | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| 防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.1球) | +0.35 | |
| 排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第6位, 相差9位) | −0.09 | |
| 排名优势 (第6位 vs 第15位, 相差9位) | +0.08 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球) | +0.07 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | +0.06 | |
| Erick替补席 (4球, 0助攻) | ||
| Nicolás Acevedo未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Eduardo 替补席 (6球, 0助攻) | ||
| João Victor未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| 32%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用) |
关键因素
- Statistical model gives Bahia a 59% win probability at home
- Mirassol concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Erick Pulga is in strong form with 3 goals in his last 5 appearances
风险
- Bahia has only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Mirassol is missing J. Carroll Santana due to a Red Card Suspension
- Bahia lost their last 2 consecutive matches
全部概率
赛果
Bahia59%
平局25%
Mirassol16%
进球
大于 1.579%
小于 1.522%
大于 2.553%
小于 2.547%
大于 3.531%
小于 3.569%
双重机会
Bahia或平局84%
Mirassol或平局41%
非平局75%
双方均进球
是52%
否48%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:0
最终比分
首发阵容
Bahia 4-3-3 · Mirassol 4-3-3
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 3 M. Ojeda
- 46 Luciano
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 9 A. Véliz
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 27 Denilson
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
替补
- 17 G. Herrera
- 31 R. Gómez
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 27 E. Stum
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 18 L. López
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 95 E. Mendes dos Santos
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 99 J. Assunção de Araujo Filho
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