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Chapecoense – Athletico PR1 : 4
模型为何这样判断
Chapecoense
1.21
总 xG
2.53
Athletico PR
1.31
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Chapecoense | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| 防守不足 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | +0.58 | |
| 排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第4位, 相差16位) | −0.21 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.16 | |
| 状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均) | +0.16 | |
| 排名优势 (第4位 vs 第20位, 相差16位) | +0.09 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍) | −0.09 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.02 | |
| G. Benavídez未进大名单 (1球, 5助攻) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.1球) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.7球) |
关键因素
- Athletico PR currently score more frequently (2.2 goals per match) than their season average (1.7 goals) and averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Significant standings gap between 4th-placed Athletico PR (50 points) and bottom side Chapecoense (18 points)
- The mathematical model favors Athletico PR with a 37% win probability compared to 33% for Chapecoense
风险
- G. Benavídez is missing for Athletico PR due to a calf injury
- Chapecoense concede an average of 1.71 goals per home match
- Athletico PR concede an average of 1.75 goals per away match
全部概率
赛果
Chapecoense33%
平局30%
Athletico PR37%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.546%
小于 2.554%
大于 3.525%
小于 3.575%
双重机会
Chapecoense或平局63%
Athletico PR或平局67%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:4
最终比分
首发阵容
Chapecoense 4-2-3-1 · Athletico PR 3-4-2-1
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 23 L. Marques dos Santos
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 4 J. Silveira dos Santos
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 31 M. Garcez
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
替补
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
- 6 G. Piola Minozzo
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 29 F. Rossi Donazar
- 20 B. Nunes de Barros
- 55 R. Macedo Soares
- 14 G. Werner
- 35 R. Azevedo Tiago
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 5 A. Costa
- 3 L. Pinheiro da Conceição
- 2 G. Leite dos Santos
- 47 F. Chiqueti Bandeira
- 26 C. de Jesus Passos
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
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