比赛报告 →
Atlético Mineiro – Santos2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Atlético Mineiro
1.42
总 xG
2.46
Santos
1.04
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Atlético Mineiro | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.18 | |
| 状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | +0.18 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | +0.00 | |
| Bernard未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| Tomás Cuello未进大名单 (5球, 2助攻) | ||
| Reinier替补席 (4球, 2助攻) | ||
| Renan Lodi替补席 (0球, 3助攻) | ||
| Maycon 替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 50%进球产出缺失 (仅45%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.6球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Squad impact: Only 46% of goal threat available, without Bernard, Tomás Cuello, Reinier, Renan Lodi, Maycon
- Form surge: Santos score more frequently recently (2.2) than their season average (1.6) and are 5 games unbeaten
- Model prediction: The calculated probabilities assign a 44% home win chance
风险
- Schedule load: Both teams play with only 3 days rest since their last match
- Away defensive concern: Santos concede an average of 1.53 goals per away match
全部概率
赛果
Atlético Mineiro44%
平局30%
Santos26%
进球
大于 1.572%
小于 1.528%
大于 2.544%
小于 2.556%
大于 3.523%
小于 3.577%
双重机会
Atlético Mineiro或平局74%
Santos或平局56%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是51%
否49%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
首发阵容
Atlético Mineiro 4-3-3 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Atlético Mineiro
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 2 Natanael
- 3 L. Duarte da Silva
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 36 K. Resende
- 15 K. Castaño Gil
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 30 V. Gomes Silva
- 18 T. Borbas
- 17 I. Silveira Gomes
Santos
- 1 D. da Silva
- 23 R. de Almeida
- 4 L. Verissimo da Silva
- 15 W. Souza Arão da Silva
- 31 G. Escobar
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 7 E. Sousa Soares
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
替补
- 8 M. de Andrade Barberan
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 27 A. Minda García
- 29 C. Soares
- 13 L. Silveira Neves Vojnović
- 39 M. Cissé
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 6 R. Lodi dos Santos
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 19 R. Carvalho
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 53 P. Lemos Barbosa
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 33 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 16 T. da Silva
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 18 I. de Souza
- 5 J. Schmidt Urbano
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 11 P. Coutinho Correia
- 45 V. Moreira de Lima
- 81 S. e Silva
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