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Palmeiras – Corinthians4 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Palmeiras
1.62
总 xG
2.24
Corinthians
0.62
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Palmeiras | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| 防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | −0.69 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.58倍) | −0.60 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.34 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.1球) | +0.23 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.3 vs 1.9 赛季平均) | −0.18 | |
| 最近5场中4场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.12 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | −0.12 | |
| 排名优势 (第2位 vs 第16位, 相差14位) | +0.11 | |
| 排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第2位, 相差14位) | −0.10 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.31倍) | −0.01 | |
| Marlon Freitas替补席 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| Rodrigo Garro未进大名单 (3球, 6助攻) | ||
| Kaio César未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.2球) |
关键因素
- Form gap and probability: The model calculates a 60% home win probability as Corinthians arrive on a 5-game losing streak
- Defensive solidness: Palmeiras concede an average of just 0.64 goals at home and have kept 13 clean sheets
- Offensive efficiency: Palmeiras averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches
风险
- Tight schedule: Palmeiras have had only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Missing personnel: Rodrigo Garro and Kaio César are not included in the squad for the visitors
- Goal scoring dip: Palmeiras recently averaged 1.33 goals per match, below their season average of 1.92
全部概率
赛果
Palmeiras60%
平局27%
Corinthians13%
进球
大于 1.567%
小于 1.533%
大于 2.539%
小于 2.561%
大于 3.519%
小于 3.581%
双重机会
Palmeiras或平局87%
Corinthians或平局40%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是39%
否61%
最可能的比分
1:0
16%
2:0
14%
1:1
12%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
4:1
最终比分
首发阵容
Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 · Corinthians 4-1-3-2
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 4 A. Giay
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 42 J. López
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 2 M. França Silva
- 3 G. de Abreu
- 13 G. Vernes
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 14 R. Almeida Melo
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
- 10 M. Depay
替补
- 19 R. Sosa
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 10 P. Sampaio Filho
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 77 J. Lingard
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 26 F. Angileri
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 11 V. Coelho Santos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 55 I. Machado
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