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Super League

Lugano - Basel

05/17/2026, 02:30 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
Lugano
1.9
Total xG
3.6
Basel
1.7
最可能的比分

2:1

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
xG 分解
LUGBAS

Lugano

最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
-0.10
Anto Grgic未进大名单 (7球, 6助攻)
Georgios Koutsias替补席 (5球, 3助攻)

Basel

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.14
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.14
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.07
Bénie Traoré未进大名单 (9球, 3助攻)
Metinho 未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
Nicolas Vouilloz替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Giacomo Koloto替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
37%进球产出缺失 (仅71%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.78
+0.78
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

24%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

76%

双方进球

71%

29%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees Lugano as favorites with a 43% home win probability
  • Form difference: Lugano shows better form with 3 wins and 1 draw compared to Basel's 1 win and 4 losses
  • Lugano's offensive strength: Averaged 5.8 shots on target in the last 5 games, while Basel averaged 4.4 shots on target
风险因素
  • Short recovery time: Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Lugano's declining goal production: Currently 1.3 goals per game, below the season average of 1.6
  • Basel's high away goals conceded rate: An average of 1.94 goals conceded per away game
概述

Lugano (3rd place, 57 points) host Basel (4th place, 53 points) at Stadio di Cornaredo

Super League match on May 17, 2026, 4:30 PM

Both teams are fighting for important points in the upper third of the table

近期状态

Lugano shows a form of WWWLD

This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 games

The last appearance ended in a draw

Basel is in a more difficult phase with a form of LLWLL

The team recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 matches

Basel suffered 2 consecutive losses recently

统计数据

Lugano scores an average of 1.49 goals and concedes 1.14 goals per game this season

At home, Lugano averages 1.45 goals scored and concedes 0.91 goals

Basel also scores 1.49 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.46 goals

Away, Basel's goal average is 1.53, while they concede 1.94 goals per away game

At Stadio di Cornaredo, an average of 2.4 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

In 3 out of 5 games at this stadium, both teams scored, and more than 2.5 goals were scored

Lugano's goal production is currently stagnant (1.3 goals), the season average is 1.6 goals

Basel's goal production is also stagnant (1.0 goals), the season average is 1.5 goals

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches, the record is even

Lugano and Basel each recorded 2 wins

1 match ended in a draw

The goal difference is 7:9 in favor of Basel

The last encounter on February 15, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

关键球员

For Lugano, Kevin Behrens (11 goals, 2 assists), Renato Steffen (7 goals, 3 assists), and Uran Bislimi (5 goals, 3 assists) are important players

Renato Steffen's form trend is rising, while Kevin Behrens' and Uran Bislimi's is declining

Not in the lineup for Lugano are Anto Grgic (7 goals, 6 assists) and Georgios Koutsias (5 goals, 3 assists)

For Basel, Albian Ajeti (4 goals, 1 assist), Dominik Schmid (3 goals, 5 assists), and Ibrahim Salah (3 goals, 3 assists) are significant

Albian Ajeti's form is stable, while Dominik Schmid's and Ibrahim Salah's is declining

Not in the lineup for Basel are Bénie Traoré (9 goals, 3 assists), Metinho (3 goals, 0 assists), Nicolas Vouilloz (1 goal, 2 assists), and Giacomo Koloto (2 goals, 0 assists)

门将

Lugano's goalkeeper David von Ballmoos played in 14 season games

Basel relies on Mirko Salvi, who has been deployed in 4 season games

Lugano recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Basel achieved 9 clean sheets

影响因素

Lugano enjoys the home advantage at Stadio di Cornaredo

The team scored an average of 1.45 goals at home and conceded 0.91 goals

Basel concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game

An average of 2.4 goals are scored per game at the stadium

The playing surface is grass

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