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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Pumas UNAM

04/06/2026, 02:07 AM

2 : 2
预期进球
Guadalajara
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Pumas UNAM
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
xG 分解
GUAPU

Guadalajara

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.44
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.20
状态上升 (2.6 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
+0.20
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.25倍)
-0.07
Ángel Sepúlveda替补席 (3球, 1助攻)

Pumas UNAM

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.16
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.06
Adalberto Carrasquilla替补席 (2球, 5助攻)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.40
+0.40
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

53%

平局

28%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

47%

非平局

72%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis assigns a clear favorite role to the home team with 53% probability for a home win
  • Current Form: Guadalajara is on a winning streak and shows a positive form trend
  • Tactical Superiority: Guadalajara is possession-dominant and offensively strong with an average of 7.2 shots on target per game
风险因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high draw probability of 28%
  • Pumas UNAM's goal production has recently stalled with only an average of 1.4 goals, compared to their season average of 1.6 goals
概述

Guadalajara hosts Pumas UNAM in a Liga MX match on April 6, 2026, 4:07 AM

Guadalajara is in 1st place in the league table with 30 points from 12 games

Pumas UNAM is in 5th place with 23 points from 12 games

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53%

近期状态

Guadalajara shows strong form with LWWWW in their last five matches

The team has recorded 4 wins and 1 loss, winning their last 4 consecutive games

According to advanced analysis, Guadalajara has a positive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (1.9)

Pumas UNAM's form in the last five matches is DLWDW

The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss during this period

Advanced analysis shows a negative form trend for Pumas UNAM, whose goal production has stalled (1.4) compared to their season average of 1.6

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Guadalajara scores an average of 1.81 goals per game this season and concedes 1.16 goals

At home, Guadalajara scores an average of 1.78 goals and concedes 0.83 goals per home game

The team kept 10 clean sheets, 7 of which were at home

Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.53 goals per game this season and concedes 1.33 goals

Away from home, Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.53 goals and concedes 1.60 goals per away game

The team kept 8 clean sheets, 3 of which were away

Guadalajara was involved in 'both teams scored' in 16 matches and 'over 2.5 goals' in 19 matches

Pumas UNAM was involved in 'both teams scored' in 20 matches and 'over 2.5 goals' in 14 matches

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara recorded 3 wins, Pumas UNAM 1 win, and there was 1 draw

Guadalajara scored 6 goals, while Pumas UNAM scored 5 goals in these encounters

The last meeting on October 6, 2025, saw Guadalajara win 2-1 away

Guadalajara has been the more dominant side in recent matchups

关键球员

Armando González is a key attacker for Guadalajara with 22 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 5 goals in his last 5 games

Roberto Alvarado contributed 4 goals and 5 assists this season and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games

Efraín Álvarez showed strong season performance with 3 goals and 6 assists, and assisted 1 goal in his last 5 games

Additionally, Ángel Sepúlveda (3 Goals/1 Assist) is not nominated for Guadalajara

Juninho is a crucial attacker for Pumas UNAM with 5 season goals and 2 assists, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games

Robert Morales scored 4 season goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals in his last 5 games

Álvaro Angulo, a defender, was involved in 6 goals and 2 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 games

Adalberto Carrasquilla (2 Goals/5 Assists) is not nominated for Pumas UNAM

门将

Raúl Rangel, Guadalajara's goalkeeper, recorded 10 clean sheets this season and shows a rising form trend

Keylor Navas, Pumas UNAM's goalkeeper, achieved 8 clean sheets this season and also shows a rising form trend

影响因素

Guadalajara shows strong home performance, scoring an average of 1.78 goals and conceding only 0.83 goals per home game

Tactical analysis shows Guadalajara was possession-dominant (59% possession) in their last 5 games, averaging 7.2 shots on target

Pumas UNAM played with balanced possession (50% possession) in their last 5 games, averaging 4.0 shots on target

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