Liga MX
Querétaro - Toluca
04/04/2026, 11:00 PM
预期进球
1.0
2.9
2.0
1:1
11%0:2
10%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
7%xG 分解
Querétaro
Toluca
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
16%
平局
24%
客胜
59%
进球数
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
双重机会
主胜或平局
41%
客胜或平局
84%
非平局
76%
双方进球
是
54%
否
46%
关键因素
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts an away win for Toluca with a 60% probability
- Clear form difference: Toluca is unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws), while Querétaro remained winless in their last 5 matches (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
- Historical dominance: Toluca won 4 of the last 5 direct encounters against Querétaro, with a clear goal difference of 15:3 in their favor
风险因素
- Querétaro in their last 5 games: Counter-attacking oriented (30% possession), averaging 3.8 shots on target (average)
- Querétaro recently conceded an average of 2.67 goals per game, which is above their season average of 1.8 goals conceded
概述
Querétaro (12th place, 20 points) host Toluca (1st place, 37 points) at home in Liga MX
The match takes place on April 5, 2026, 12:00 AM
Toluca enters this match as the clear favorite
近期状态
Querétaro shows poor form with DLLDD in their last five matches across all competitions
This translates to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in this period
Their last two matches ended in a draw
Toluca, on the other hand, is in strong form with WWWDD
The team achieved 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses from their last five games
Toluca also drew their last two matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Querétaro has scored an average of 0.96 goals per game this season and conceded 1.61 goals
At home, the average is 0.94 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per home game
Querétaro kept a clean sheet in 7 matches this season
Toluca is offensively strong with an average of 1.97 goals per game and a solid defense conceding 0.89 goals
Away from home, Toluca scores an average of 2.00 goals and concedes 0.92 goals
Toluca recorded 13 clean sheets this season
Both teams are expected to score in 54% of matches
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca dominated with 4 wins
Querétaro failed to win any of the last 5 direct encounters, with one draw
The goal difference of 15:3 clearly favors Toluca
The last meeting saw Toluca win 4-0 at home on October 18, 2025
Toluca has been recently dominant in direct comparisons
关键球员
For Querétaro, Alí Ávila (8 goals, 0 assists), Santiago Homenchenko (5 goals, 0 assists), and Jhojan Julio (3 goals, 2 assists) are important attacking players
Alí Ávila shows a declining form, while Santiago Homenchenko and Jhojan Julio are stable
Toluca's key players include Paulinho (21 goals, 4 assists), Helinho (9 goals, 6 assists), and Jesús Angulo (7 goals, 4 assists)
Paulinho and Helinho show a declining form, while Jesús Angulo is in rising form
Jesús Gallardo (5 goals, 3 assists) is not in the starting lineup
门将
Querétaro's goalkeeper, José Hernández, has shown rising form in his last two appearances
Querétaro has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Toluca's goalkeeper, Luis García, has shown stable form in his last three appearances
Toluca recorded 13 clean sheets
影响因素
Querétaro scores an average of 0.94 goals at home and concedes 0.94 goals
Toluca scores an average of 2.00 goals away and concedes 0.92 goals
Home and away statistics indicate a stronger performance by Toluca on the road