Liga MX
Toluca - Atlético San Luis
04/13/2026, 01:00 AM
预期进球
2.4
3.2
0.8
2:0
12%2:1
9%3:0
9%1:1
9%3:1
7%xG 分解
Toluca
Atlético San Luis
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
72%
平局
19%
客胜
10%
进球数
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
双重机会
主胜或平局
90%
客胜或平局
28%
非平局
81%
双方进球
是
51%
否
49%
关键因素
- Significant weakening of Toluca's offense: Only 40% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, with Paulinho (21G/4A), Helinho (9G/6A), Jesús Angulo (7G/4A), Franco Romero (1G/2A), and Federico Pereira (3G/0A) missing
- Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a very high probability of a home win at 72%
- Historical dominance: Toluca won all 5 direct encounters against Atlético San Luis, achieving a goal difference of 14:4
风险因素
- Toluca's goal production has slowed recently, with an average of 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
- Toluca is missing midfielder M. Ruiz Suárez due to a Cruciate Ligament Tear, who contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this season
- Atlético San Luis shows consistent goal-scoring ability in recent matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game
概述
Toluca (1st place, 37 points) hosts Atlético San Luis (15th place, 14 points) in Liga MX on April 13, 2026, 2:00 AM
The hosts lead the table and aim to extend their top position
Atlético San Luis is fighting in the lower mid-table for points to move away from the relegation zone
近期状态
Toluca's form in the last five games is WWDDL
This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last appearance ended in a loss (0-1 against Querétaro)
Atlético San Luis's form in the last five games is WLDLW
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Atlético San Luis won their last game 2-1 against Monterrey
统计数据
Toluca scores an average of 1.95 goals and concedes 0.86 goals per game in home matches
The team kept 5 clean sheets in home games
Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.69 goals per game in away matches
The team kept 4 clean sheets in away games
Toluca has had 19 games with both teams scoring and 18 games with over 2.5 goals this season
Atlético San Luis recorded 20 games with both teams scoring and 19 games with over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
In a total of 5 head-to-head matches between Toluca and Atlético San Luis, there has been clear home dominance
Toluca won all 5 encounters, while Atlético San Luis remained without a win
The goal difference in these matches is 14:4 in favor of Toluca
The last meeting on August 30, 2025, ended with a 3-1 home victory for Toluca
关键球员
For Toluca, Alexis Vega is an important attacker with 4 goals and 10 assists this season
Defender Antonio Briseño showed a rising form trend in the last 5 games with 1 goal
Midfielder Sebastián Córdova contributed 2 assists this season
For Atlético San Luis, attacker João Pedro stands out with an impressive 23 season goals and shows a rising form trend
Midfielder Sébastien Salles-Lamonge scored 5 goals and provided 6 assists
Attacker Jesús Medina contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season
门将
Toluca's goalkeeper, Hugo González, played 21 season games with an average rating of 6.87
Toluca recorded a total of 13 clean sheets this season
Andrés Sánchez, Atlético San Luis's goalkeeper, played 28 season games and achieved an average rating of 6.77
Atlético San Luis kept a total of 6 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Toluca shows strong performance at home with an average of 1.95 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded
Atlético San Luis has a more vulnerable defense away from home, conceding an average of 1.69 goals per game