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Liga MX

Toluca - Atlético San Luis

04/13/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
预期进球
Toluca
2.4
Total xG
3.2
Atlético San Luis
0.8
最可能的比分

2:0

12%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

1:1

9%

3:1

7%
xG 分解
TOLASL

Toluca

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.43倍)
+0.73
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.65
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.19
状态下滑 (1.6 vs 2.2 赛季平均)
-0.19
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第15位, 相差14位)
+0.16
Paulinho未进大名单 (21球, 4助攻)
Helinho未进大名单 (9球, 6助攻)
Jesús Angulo替补席 (7球, 4助攻)
Franco Romero替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Federico Pereira未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻)
78%进球产出缺失 (仅40%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均2.8球 vs 总体2.2球)

Atlético San Luis

排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第1位, 相差14位)
-0.13
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.03

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.40
+0.40
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

72%

平局

19%

客胜

10%

进球数

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

双重机会

主胜或平局

90%

客胜或平局

28%

非平局

81%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • Significant weakening of Toluca's offense: Only 40% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, with Paulinho (21G/4A), Helinho (9G/6A), Jesús Angulo (7G/4A), Franco Romero (1G/2A), and Federico Pereira (3G/0A) missing
  • Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a very high probability of a home win at 72%
  • Historical dominance: Toluca won all 5 direct encounters against Atlético San Luis, achieving a goal difference of 14:4
风险因素
  • Toluca's goal production has slowed recently, with an average of 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
  • Toluca is missing midfielder M. Ruiz Suárez due to a Cruciate Ligament Tear, who contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this season
  • Atlético San Luis shows consistent goal-scoring ability in recent matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game
概述

Toluca (1st place, 37 points) hosts Atlético San Luis (15th place, 14 points) in Liga MX on April 13, 2026, 2:00 AM

The hosts lead the table and aim to extend their top position

Atlético San Luis is fighting in the lower mid-table for points to move away from the relegation zone

近期状态

Toluca's form in the last five games is WWDDL

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last appearance ended in a loss (0-1 against Querétaro)

Atlético San Luis's form in the last five games is WLDLW

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Atlético San Luis won their last game 2-1 against Monterrey

统计数据

Toluca scores an average of 1.95 goals and concedes 0.86 goals per game in home matches

The team kept 5 clean sheets in home games

Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.69 goals per game in away matches

The team kept 4 clean sheets in away games

Toluca has had 19 games with both teams scoring and 18 games with over 2.5 goals this season

Atlético San Luis recorded 20 games with both teams scoring and 19 games with over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In a total of 5 head-to-head matches between Toluca and Atlético San Luis, there has been clear home dominance

Toluca won all 5 encounters, while Atlético San Luis remained without a win

The goal difference in these matches is 14:4 in favor of Toluca

The last meeting on August 30, 2025, ended with a 3-1 home victory for Toluca

关键球员

For Toluca, Alexis Vega is an important attacker with 4 goals and 10 assists this season

Defender Antonio Briseño showed a rising form trend in the last 5 games with 1 goal

Midfielder Sebastián Córdova contributed 2 assists this season

For Atlético San Luis, attacker João Pedro stands out with an impressive 23 season goals and shows a rising form trend

Midfielder Sébastien Salles-Lamonge scored 5 goals and provided 6 assists

Attacker Jesús Medina contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season

门将

Toluca's goalkeeper, Hugo González, played 21 season games with an average rating of 6.87

Toluca recorded a total of 13 clean sheets this season

Andrés Sánchez, Atlético San Luis's goalkeeper, played 28 season games and achieved an average rating of 6.77

Atlético San Luis kept a total of 6 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Toluca shows strong performance at home with an average of 1.95 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded

Atlético San Luis has a more vulnerable defense away from home, conceding an average of 1.69 goals per game

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