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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Puebla

04/19/2026, 01:07 AM

5 : 0
预期进球
Guadalajara
2.0
Total xG
2.5
Puebla
0.6
最可能的比分

2:0

15%

1:1

10%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
GUAPUE

Guadalajara

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.32
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.27
状态上升 (2.8 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
+0.27
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.39倍)
+0.22
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第16位, 相差15位)
+0.14
Richard Ledezma未进大名单 (1球, 8助攻)

Puebla

防守实力 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.97
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.68倍)
-0.79
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.18
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.13
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第1位, 相差15位)
-0.10
Edgar Guerra未进大名单 (4球, 2助攻)
José Pachuca未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
Luis Gabriel Rey替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
23%进球产出缺失 (仅87%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.39
+0.39
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

69%

平局

22%

客胜

9%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

91%

客胜或平局

31%

非平局

78%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a home win at 69%
  • Form trend: Guadalajara shows significantly better form with three wins and one draw compared to the away team (two draws, three losses)
  • Table position and matchup: Guadalajara (1st place) faces Puebla (16th place), with the home offense (Avg. 2.8 goals) meeting a vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.23 goals conceded)
风险因素
  • Puebla concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Puebla plays with only 88% of their usual starting XI's goal threat due to missing key players
概述

Guadalajara (1st place, 31 points) host Puebla (16th place, 13 points) in a Liga MX match on April 19, 2026, 3:07 AM. Guadalajara leads the league table, while Puebla is struggling in the lower half. The encounter pits a top team against a relegation candidate.

近期状态

Guadalajara shows mixed form with WWWDL in their last five matches, including three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their last game resulted in a loss against Tigres UANL. Puebla is in worse shape with LDLDL in their last five outings, with two draws and three losses, including a recent loss to León. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

统计数据

Guadalajara averages 1.79 goals per game and concedes 1.27 goals per game over the season. At home, they are offensively strong with an average of 1.79 home goals and only 0.89 goals conceded per home game. Puebla, on the other hand, has a season average of 1.03 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded. Their defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.23 goals per away game.

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Guadalajara dominated with four wins, while Puebla secured one victory. Guadalajara scored a total of 8 goals to Puebla's 3. The last meeting on September 27, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Guadalajara.

关键球员

For Guadalajara, attacker Armando González is in top form with 24 season goals and 1 assist (4 goals in the last 5 games). Roberto Alvarado, also an attacker, has 4 goals and 5 assists this season. Bryan Alonso González Oliván as a defender recently showed rising form with 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games. For Puebla, attacker Emiliano Gómez is a key player with 7 season goals and 5 assists. Defender Fernando Monárrez contributed 1 goal and 3 assists. Attacker Kevin Velasco provided 3 assists this season, although his recent form has been declining.

门将

Guadalajara's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has played 33 games and recorded 10 clean sheets this season. For Puebla, goalkeeper Daniel Gutiérrez played 14 games and has 0 clean sheets. Puebla has a total of 6 clean sheets this season.

影响因素

Guadalajara demonstrates particular strength at home, averaging 1.79 home goals scored and conceding only 0.89 goals per home game. No data on weather-related influences is available.

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