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Liga MX

América - Toluca

04/19/2026, 03:10 AM

2 : 1
预期进球
América
1.0
Total xG
2.4
Toluca
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

0:0

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%
xG 分解
AMÉTOL

América

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍)
-0.92
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.57
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
-0.12
Patricio Salas替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Ramón Juárez替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Kevin Álvarez替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Érick Sánchez替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
17%进球产出缺失 (仅95%可用)

Toluca

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.30
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 2.2 赛季平均)
-0.30
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.19
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.53倍)
+0.18
Helinho替补席 (9球, 6助攻)
Antonio Briseño替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Sebastián Córdova替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体2.2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.39
+0.39
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

26%

平局

30%

客胜

44%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

56%

客胜或平局

74%

非平局

70%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Toluca is the favorite with a 44% higher win probability according to mathematical analysis
  • Toluca leads the league with 37 points and has shown a stronger offense this season with 1.89 goals per game compared to América
  • América's recent goal production averages 1.2 goals, lower than their season average of 1.6 goals
风险因素
  • América has recently shown a negative trend in goal production, averaging 1.2 goals which is below their season average of 1.6 goals
  • Toluca also shows a negative trend in goal production, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
  • América has significant absentees: V. Dávila Zavala (Knee Injury) and D. Espinoza Acosta (Torn Lateral Collateral Ligament)
概述

América (4th place, 34 points) hosts Toluca (1st place, 37 points) in a Liga MX clash

Kick-off is on April 19, 2026, 4:10 AM

This top match promises excitement in the fight for the league title

近期状态

América's current form (WWLDD) shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Their last match ended in a draw, followed by another draw

Toluca's form is WDDLD, consisting of 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 fixtures

Their last match also ended in a draw

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

América scored an average of 1.52 goals per game and conceded 1.03 goals per game over the season

At home, they scored 1.56 goals and conceded 0.83 goals per home game

Toluca shows a stronger offense with an average of 1.89 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.89 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Toluca scores 1.86 goals and concedes 0.93 goals per game

América kept 11 clean sheets this season, and Toluca kept 13

Both teams scored in 17 of América's games, and in 20 of Toluca's games

América's goal production is stagnant (1.2 on average recently), season average is 1.6

Toluca's goal production is also stagnant (1.2 on average recently), season average is 2.2

历史交锋

In 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, América secured 2 wins and Toluca also claimed 2 wins

1 match ended in a draw

América scored 5 goals, while Toluca managed 4 goals

The last encounter on November 09, 2025, saw Toluca win 2:0

The recent head-to-head record is even

关键球员

América's top three attackers are Brian Rodríguez with 10 goals and 6 assists, Álex Zendejas with 8 goals and 5 assists, and Raphael Veiga with 2 goals and 2 assists

Brian Rodríguez shows stable form, Álex Zendejas is in a declining form, Raphael Veiga is in stable form

Not in the starting lineup are Patricio Salas (2G/2A), Ramón Juárez (2G/0A), Kevin Álvarez (1G/1A), and Érick Sánchez (2G/0A)

For Toluca, Paulinho with 21 goals and 4 assists, Alexis Vega with 4 goals and 10 assists, and Jesús Angulo with 7 goals and 4 assists are the key offensive players

Paulinho is in a declining form, Alexis Vega shows rising form, Jesús Angulo is in rising form

Not in the starting lineup are Helinho (9G/6A), Antonio Briseño (2G/1A), and Sebastián Córdova (0G/2A)

门将

América's goalkeeper is Rodolfo Cota

América recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Toluca's goalkeeper is Luis García

Toluca achieved 13 clean sheets this season

影响因素

América scores an average of 1.56 goals at home and concedes 0.83 goals per home game

Toluca scores 1.86 goals away and concedes 0.93 goals per away game

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