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Liga MX

Monterrey - Puebla

04/22/2026, 03:05 AM

2 : 1
预期进球
Monterrey
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Puebla
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
MONPUE

Monterrey

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.15
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第16位, 相差11位)
+0.08
Uros Djurdjevic替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
Gerardo Arteaga替补席 (1球, 1助攻)

Puebla

防守实力 (场均失2.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+1.07
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.66倍)
-0.45
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.22
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.19
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第5位, 相差11位)
-0.10
Fernando Monárrez未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
Kevin Velasco未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
24%进球产出缺失 (仅69%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.40
+0.40
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

52%

平局

29%

客胜

19%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

81%

客胜或平局

48%

非平局

71%

双方进球

44%

56%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Monterrey with 52% probability, with 1.49 expected home goals compared to 0.80 for Puebla
  • Monterrey dominates head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, with a goal difference of 10:5 in the last five encounters
  • Puebla shows a weak away defense, conceding an average of 2.62 goals per away game
风险因素
  • Puebla's squad strength is critically limited, with only 70% of usual goal threat available, missing players like Fernando Monárrez (1G/3A) and Kevin Velasco (0G/3A)
  • Both teams had only 3 days rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
  • Puebla recorded an average of only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Monterrey conceded an average of 2.5 goals in recent matches, compared to a season average of 1.54 goals conceded
概述

Monterrey (5th place, 31 points) hosts Puebla (16th place, 13 points) in Liga MX

Kick-off is on April 22, 2026, 4:05 AM

Monterrey is fighting for a better playoff position, while Puebla is struggling to keep up

近期状态

Monterrey shows a form of D-L-L-D-L in their last five matches across all competitions

This includes 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Puebla also has a form of D-L-D-L-L

This consists of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with two consecutive losses at the end

统计数据

Monterrey scores an average of 1.64 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals per game

At home, Monterrey averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded

Puebla scores an average of 1.0 goal per season and concedes 2.0 goals per game

Away from home, Puebla's goal average is 1.0, while they concede an average of 2.62 goals

Both teams scored in 19 Monterrey games and 16 Puebla games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 Monterrey games and 19 Puebla games

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head matches, Monterrey dominated

Monterrey won 3 games, while Puebla recorded no wins

Two matches ended in a draw

The goal difference of 10:5 clearly favors Monterrey

The last encounter on August 30, 2025, was won by Monterrey with a score of 4:2

关键球员

For Monterrey, Lucas Ocampos (6 goals, 6 assists, average rating 6.99), Óliver Torres (1 goal, 8 assists, average rating 7.12), and Luca Orellano (3 goals, 4 assists, average rating 7.31) are notable

Their form trends are currently declining

For Puebla, Emiliano Gómez (7 goals, 5 assists, average rating 6.87) stands out

Alejandro Organista (1 goal, 1 assist, average rating 6.80) and Juan Pablo Vargas (1 goal, 0 assists, average rating 6.83) are other key players

Emiliano Gómez and Juan Pablo Vargas also show declining form trends

门将

Monterrey's goalkeeper, Santiago Mele, played in 15 season appearances

Monterrey has kept 10 clean sheets in total this season

Puebla's goalkeeper, Daniel Gutiérrez, also started in 15 season appearances

Puebla has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Monterrey scored 1.6 goals per game at home and conceded 1.1 goals per home game

Puebla concedes an average of 2.62 goals per away game

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