Liga MX
Mazatlán - Toluca
04/23/2026, 01:00 AM
预期进球
0.9
2.9
2.0
0:2
11%1:1
11%1:2
10%0:3
8%1:3
7%xG 分解
Mazatlán
Toluca
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
14%
平局
23%
客胜
62%
进球数
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
双重机会
主胜或平局
38%
客胜或平局
86%
非平局
77%
双方进球
是
51%
否
49%
关键因素
- Table Position and Form: Toluca, as league leader (37 points), is clearly superior to Mazatlán (16th place, 14 points)
- Toluca's Offensive Strength: The mathematical analysis predicts 1.99 expected goals for Toluca, while Mazatlán has only 0.86 expected goals
- Mazatlán's Defensive Vulnerability: Mazatlán conceded an average of 1.81 goals per season, and Toluca is significantly more stable away with only 1.07 goals conceded per game
风险因素
- Weak current goal production for both teams: Mazatlán's goal production is stagnant (0.8 goals in recent games), the season average is 1.2
- Absences for Toluca: Only 57% of Toluca's usual starting eleven goal threat is available, as Paulinho (21 goals, 4 assists), Jesús Angulo (7 goals, 4 assists), and Franco Romero (1 goal, 2 assists) are not listed
- Short recovery time for Toluca: Toluca had only 4 days of rest since their last match
概述
Mazatlán (16th place, 14 points) host Toluca (1st place, 37 points) in Liga MX on April 23, 2026, 2:00 AM
The visitors are clear league leaders, while Mazatlán struggles at the bottom of the table
Toluca aims to solidify its league lead, Mazatlán seeks crucial points in the relegation battle
近期状态
Mazatlán's last 5 games show the form "LDLLD"
The team recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
Toluca's last 5 games show the form "DDLDL"
Toluca has 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Mazatlán averaged 1.16 goals scored per game and conceded 1.81 goals per game this season
At home, they averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded
Toluca is significantly stronger offensively with an average of 1.87 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.92 goals conceded
Away from home, Toluca scores 1.93 goals and concedes 1.07 goals per game
Mazatlán had both teams score in 24 of 32 games, and 19 games had over 2.5 goals
Toluca had both teams score in 21 of 38 games, and 19 games had over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mazatlán won 2 and Toluca won 3
There were no draws
Mazatlán scored 5 goals, Toluca scored 11 goals
The last encounter on September 28, 2025, ended with a 1:3 victory for Toluca
Toluca has been more dominant in recent matchups
关键球员
For Mazatlán, Facundo Almada is an important defender with 6 goals and 2 assists this season
Josué Ovalle in attack contributed 5 goals and 1 assist, with an average rating of 6.87
Yoel Bárcenas (2 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.85) is also a key offensive player
For Toluca, Alexis Vega stands out with 4 goals and 10 assists, with a season average rating of 7.56
Marcel Ruiz in midfield has scored 3 goals and provided 4 assists, with a rating of 7.32
Antonio Briseño, a defender, has 2 goals and 1 assist and a rating of 6.87, with a positive form trend
门将
Mazatlán's goalkeeper Ricardo Rodríguez played 15 games this season with an average rating of 7.22
The Mazatlán team has achieved 2 clean sheets this season
Toluca's goalkeeper Hugo González played 22 games and has a rating of 6.85
Toluca has 13 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Mazatlán averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded at home, indicating a moderate home advantage
Mazatlán played counter-attacking in their last 5 games with an average of 40% possession and 3.4 shots on target
Toluca played possession-dominant in their last 5 games with an average of 63% possession and 5.8 shots on target