Liga MX
Toluca - León
04/26/2026, 01:05 AM
预期进球
2.1
2.9
0.8
2:0
13%1:1
10%2:1
10%3:0
9%3:1
7%xG 分解
Toluca
León
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
67%
平局
22%
客胜
11%
进球数
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
双重机会
主胜或平局
89%
客胜或平局
33%
非平局
78%
双方进球
是
48%
否
52%
关键因素
- Critical weakening for Toluca: Only 47% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, as Paulinho (21G/4A), Jesús Angulo (7G/5A) and Franco Romero (1G/2A) are not in the lineup
- León shows a significantly rising form with four wins in their last five games, while Toluca remained winless during this period
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 67% for Toluca and an expected 2.11 home goals
风险因素
- Toluca has only 3 days since the last match
- León concedes an average of 4.12 goals per away game
概述
Toluca (1st place, 37 points) host León (10th place, 22 points) in a Liga MX match on April 26, 2026, 2:05 AM
The hosts lead the league and aim to solidify their position
近期状态
Toluca's form in the last five matches is DLDLL, with two draws and three losses
León, on the other hand, showed WWWWL, including four wins and one loss
León's current form trend is positive, scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.1)
Toluca's goal production is currently stagnant with an average of 1.2 goals, while their season average is 2.2
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Toluca averages 1.9 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.0 goals
At home, these values improve to 1.91 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded per home game
León averages 1.06 goals scored per game and concedes 1.79 goals
León's away defense is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.12 goals per away game
Both teams scored in 22 of Toluca's games, and in 17 of León's matches
历史交锋
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Toluca secured two wins, León one win, and there were two draws
Toluca scored 13 goals in these matches, while León scored 9
The last meeting on October 5, 2025, ended in a 4-2 victory for Toluca
关键球员
For Toluca, Alexis Vega is an important attacker with 4 goals and 11 assists and a season average rating of 7.51, though his form is currently slightly declining
Antonio Briseño (3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.91) shows a rising form
Pável Pérez contributed 2 assists and has an average rating of 6.94
On León's side, Ismael Díaz shines with 10 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.05
Díber Cambindo scored 7 times and provided 2 assists, and his form is rising
Fernando Beltrán (3 goals, 2 assists, rating 6.93) also shows a rising form
门将
Toluca's goalkeeper Luis García played two of the last five games with an average rating of 6.94
The Toluca team recorded 13 clean sheets this season
León's goalkeeper Óscar García played all five of the last games with an average rating of 6.70
The León team achieved 6 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Toluca shows a strong offensive performance at home with an average of 1.91 goals scored and a solid defense with 0.87 goals conceded per game