Liga MX
Guadalajara - Tijuana
04/26/2026, 01:07 AM
预期进球
2.4
3.0
0.7
2:0
13%3:0
10%2:1
9%1:1
9%3:1
7%xG 分解
Guadalajara
Tijuana
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
74%
平局
18%
客胜
8%
进球数
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
双重机会
主胜或平局
92%
客胜或平局
26%
非平局
82%
双方进球
是
46%
否
54%
关键因素
- The high home win probability of 74% for Guadalajara according to mathematical analysis
- Guadalajara's tactical dominance with an average of 60% possession and 7.4 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Tijuana's defensive vulnerability away from home with an average of 2.36 goals conceded per game
风险因素
- Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Tijuana's reduced assisting strength without Mourad El Ghezouani and Rafael Fernández, which corresponds to 89% of the usual assist share
概述
Guadalajara (1st place, 35 points) host Tijuana (7th place, 24 points) in Liga MX on April 26, 2026, 3:07 AM
Guadalajara aims to consolidate its top position
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 74% probability and 2.35 expected goals for Guadalajara
近期状态
Guadalajara's form across all competitions: WDLWD
In the last 5 games, Guadalajara recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last game ended in a draw
Guadalajara recently drew 0-0 against Necaxa away, beat Puebla 5-0 at home, lost 1-4 against Tigres UANL away, drew 2-2 against Pumas UNAM at home, and won 3-2 against Monterrey away
Tijuana shows form LWWDW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Tijuana won their last game
Tijuana recently beat Pachuca 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 against Cruz Azul away, won 2-1 against Juárez away, beat Tigres UANL 1-0 at home, and lost 0-3 against Necaxa away
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Guadalajara scores an average of 1.83 goals per game this season and concedes 1.2 goals
At home, they score 1.86 goals and concede 0.81 goals on average
The team kept 12 clean sheets, 8 of them at home
Tijuana scores an average of 1.5 goals per game and concedes 1.28 goals
Away, their record is significantly weaker with 1.5 goals scored and 2.36 goals conceded per game
Tijuana achieved a total of 12 clean sheets, only 2 away from home
The mathematical analysis predicts 2.35 expected goals for Guadalajara and 0.68 for Tijuana for the match
The probability of both teams scoring is 46%
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 59%
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Guadalajara, 1 win for Tijuana, and 2 draws
Both teams scored 9 goals in these encounters
The last meeting on August 23, 2025, ended in a 3-3 draw
关键球员
For Guadalajara, Armando González (24 goals, 2 assists in 34 appearances), Bryan Alonso González Oliván (6 goals, 5 assists in 35 appearances), and Efraín Álvarez (3 goals, 7 assists in 35 appearances) are noteworthy
For Tijuana, Kevin Castañeda (13 goals, 7 assists in 36 appearances), Ramiro Árciga (3 goals, 8 assists in 35 appearances), and Gilberto Mora (6 goals, 1 assist in 19 appearances) stand out
门将
Guadalajara's goalkeeper Óscar Alexánder Whalley Guardado has an average rating of 6.68 in one season appearance
Tijuana relies on Antonio Rodríguez, who has a rating of 7.19 in 36 season appearances
Guadalajara has achieved 12 clean sheets this season, Tijuana also has 12
影响因素
Guadalajara shows a clear home advantage with an average of 1.86 goals scored and only 0.81 goals conceded in home games
Tijuana's away record is weak with an average of 1.5 goals scored and a high 2.36 goals conceded in away games