FA Cup
Chelsea - Manchester City
05/16/2026, 02:00 PM
预期进球
1.1
3.1
2.0
1:1
11%1:2
10%0:2
9%1:3
7%0:3
6%xG 分解
Chelsea
Manchester City
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
19%
平局
24%
客胜
57%
进球数
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
双重机会
主胜或平局
43%
客胜或平局
81%
非平局
76%
双方进球
是
59%
否
41%
关键因素
- Manchester City's superior offensive power (Avg. 2.08 goals/game) and defensive solidity (Avg. 0.89 goals conceded/game) compared to Chelsea
- Manchester City's dominant recent form (4 wins, 1 draw) contrasts sharply with Chelsea's struggling form (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
- The mathematical model strongly favors Manchester City with a 57% win probability and predicts 1.99 expected goals for them
风险因素
- Manchester City faces the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Chelsea's tactical analysis shows they average only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating a lower offensive threat
- Chelsea has several players sidelined due to injuries, including J. Derry, C. Wiley, E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves, J. Bynoe-Gittens, and M. Mudryk
概述
Chelsea face Manchester City in the FA Cup Final at Wembley Stadium on May 16, 2026, 3:00 PM
This highly anticipated final pits two strong English teams against each other
The mathematical analysis gives Manchester City a significant advantage with a 57% chance of winning
Chelsea's win probability stands at 19%, and a draw at 24%
近期状态
Chelsea's recent form in all competitions is 'LLWLD', showing 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches
Their last result was a draw
Manchester City, by contrast, are in excellent form with 'WWDWW', recording 4 wins and 1 draw, including two consecutive wins
According to advanced statistics, Chelsea's goal production is struggling (0.6 goals recently), while Manchester City maintains consistent scoring with approximately 2.3 goals per game
统计数据
Manchester City boasts a strong offensive record this season, averaging 2.08 goals scored per game, significantly higher than Chelsea's 1.53 goals per game
Defensively, Manchester City is also superior, conceding only 0.89 goals per game on average, compared to Chelsea's 1.36
Manchester City has kept 16 clean sheets this season, while Chelsea has 9
In away games, Manchester City scores an average of 2.07 goals and concedes 1.33
Chelsea, playing at home, scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.5
The Wembley Stadium has seen an average of 2.0 total goals per game in its last five matches
Both teams scored in 40% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%
历史交锋
In the last five direct encounters, Manchester City have a clear advantage with 4 wins compared to Chelsea's 0, and 1 draw
Manchester City have scored 10 goals against Chelsea's 2 in these matches
The most recent fixture on April 12, 2026, saw Manchester City win 3-0 away
Manchester City have been the dominant team in recent head-to-head clashes
关键球员
For Chelsea, Enzo Fernández (9 goals, 3 assists, Avg. Rating 7.23) shows a rising form trend
João Pedro (15 goals, 5 assists, Avg. Rating 7.16) has a declining form trend, while Cole Palmer (9 goals, 1 assist, Avg. Rating 6.99) also shows a declining trend
Not nominated from the usual starting lineup are Pedro Neto (5G/4A) and Trevoh Chalobah (3G/0A)
For Manchester City, Erling Haaland (26 goals, 8 assists, Avg. Rating 7.33) maintains a stable form
Jérémy Doku (5 goals, 5 assists, Avg. Rating 7.22) is in rising form
Bernardo Silva (2 goals, 4 assists, Avg. Rating 6.96) shows a stable form trend
Not nominated from the usual starting lineup are Rayan Cherki (4G/12A) and Rayan Aït-Nouri (0G/2A)
门将
Chelsea's goalkeeper Robert Sánchez has made 33 season appearances and has an average rating of 6.80
Chelsea recorded 9 clean sheets this season
For Manchester City, James Trafford has 3 season appearances and an average rating of 6.88
Manchester City achieved 16 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The match takes place at Wembley Stadium, a neutral venue
The stadium's recent history shows an average of 2.0 total goals per game over 5 matches
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games
This suggests a tendency for matches with moderate scoring at this venue