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Liga MX

Atlas - Cruz Azul

05/03/2026, 03:15 AM

2 : 3
预期进球
Atlas
0.7
Total xG
2.3
Cruz Azul
1.6
最可能的比分

0:1

15%

0:2

13%

1:1

13%

0:0

12%

1:2

9%
xG 分解
ATLCA

Atlas

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.45倍)
-1.31
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.28
状态下滑 (0.7 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.20
最近5场中4场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第3位, 相差11位)
-0.08
Arturo González替补席 (6球, 0助攻)
Gaddi Aguirre替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
29%进球产出缺失 (仅89%可用)

Cruz Azul

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.09
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第14位, 相差11位)
+0.08
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.04
Gabriel Fernández未进大名单 (14球, 7助攻)
Jeremy Márquez替补席 (5球, 1助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅85%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.9球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.41
+0.41
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

14%

平局

28%

客胜

58%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

42%

客胜或平局

86%

非平局

72%

双方进球

40%

60%

关键因素
  • Cruz Azul is significantly higher in the league table with 3rd place and 35 points compared to Atlas (14th place, 17 points)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Cruz Azul with a probability of 58%
  • Cruz Azul displayed a possession-dominant style in the last 5 games (59% possession) with an average of 4.8 shots on target, while Atlas played counter-attacking football with an average of 2.2 shots on target
风险因素
  • Atlas's goal production is stagnant (0.7 goals in recent games) compared to their season average (1.3 goals)
  • Cruz Azul's goal production is stagnant (1.6 goals in recent games) compared to their season average (1.9 goals)
  • The historical tendency in head-to-head matches shows many draws (4 out of 5 matches ended in a draw)
概述

Atlas (14th place, 17 points) hosts Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) in Liga MX on May 3, 2026, 3:15 AM

Cruz Azul aims to solidify its top position and close the gap to the league leaders

Atlas is struggling at the bottom of the table and urgently needs points to move away from the relegation zone

近期状态

Atlas has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches (Form: LDWDW)

Atlas's last game was a 1-0 away win against América

Cruz Azul has one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches (Form: LDDDW)

Cruz Azul's last game was a 4-1 home win against Necaxa

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Atlas has scored an average of 1.18 goals per game and conceded 1.56 goals per game this season

At home, Atlas averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded

Cruz Azul has scored an average of 1.79 goals per game and conceded 1.11 goals per game this season

Away from home, Cruz Azul averages 1.81 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded

Atlas has kept 10 clean sheets this season, and Cruz Azul also has 10 clean sheets

For Atlas, 17 games ended with both teams scoring, compared to 27 games for Cruz Azul

历史交锋

The last five head-to-head encounters saw four draws and one win for Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul scored a total of 10 goals, while Atlas scored 8 goals in these matches

The last duel on January 14, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul has shown recent dominance in direct matchups

关键球员

For Atlas, Diego González is a central figure with 6 goals and 7 assists this season

Manuel Capasso, a defender, recently showed rising form, scoring 1 goal in the last 5 games with a season average rating of 7.2

Goalkeeper Camilo Vargas shows a rising form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.14

For Cruz Azul, José Paradela stands out with 9 goals and 8 assists this season

Carlos Rotondi provided 7 assists this season, with 3 of them coming in the last 5 games

Agustín Palavecino contributed 5 goals and 3 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

门将

Camilo Vargas, Atlas's goalkeeper, has played in 31 matches and kept 10 clean sheets

Kevin Mier, Cruz Azul's goalkeeper, has played 20 matches and kept 10 clean sheets

影响因素

Atlas averages 1.19 goals scored per home game and concedes 1.05 goals

Cruz Azul performs well away from home, averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded

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