Liga MX
Tigres UANL - Guadalajara
05/03/2026, 01:00 AM
预期进球
1.1
2.0
0.9
0:0
15%1:1
15%1:0
13%0:1
11%2:0
8%xG 分解
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
37%
平局
34%
客胜
29%
进球数
Over 1.5
61%
Under 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
双重机会
主胜或平局
71%
客胜或平局
63%
非平局
66%
双方进球
是
42%
否
58%
关键因素
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a Tigres UANL home win with 37% probability
- Tigres Home Strength: Tigres UANL averages 1.8 goals scored at home while conceding only 0.6 goals per game
- Head-to-Head: Tigres UANL won the last direct encounter against Guadalajara 4-1 and has been dominant in recent matchups
风险因素
- Critical absences for Guadalajara: Only 57% of usual starting XI goal threat is available, with missing players such as Armando González (24 goals, 2 assists) and Roberto Alvarado (4 goals, 5 assists)
- High draw probability: The mathematical analysis indicates a relatively high 34% probability for a draw
- Low goal expectation: The model predicts 1.07 expected home goals and 0.93 expected away goals, suggesting a potentially low-scoring match
概述
Tigres UANL (2nd place, 36 points) host Guadalajara (6th place, 29 points) in Liga MX on May 3, 2026, 3:00 AM. Tigres are in the race for the top spot, while Guadalajara aims for a playoff position.
近期状态
Tigres UANL's form over the last five games is WDDLW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. The team won its last match.
Guadalajara's form over the last five games is DLWDD, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Guadalajara last drew two consecutive matches.
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Tigres UANL averages 1.8 goals scored per game and concedes 1.03 goals per game over the season. At home, they score 1.8 goals and concede only 0.6 goals per home game.
Guadalajara averages 1.78 goals scored per game and concedes 1.17 goals per game. Away, the team scores 1.79 goals and concedes 1.79 goals per away game.
Tigres UANL kept 14 clean sheets, while Guadalajara managed 13. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 of Tigres UANL's matches and in 22 of Guadalajara's matches.
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres UANL secured 2 wins, Guadalajara had 0 wins, and there were 3 draws. Tigres UANL scored a total of 7 goals, while Guadalajara scored 3 goals. The last encounter on April 11, 2026, saw Tigres UANL win 4-1 at home. Tigres UANL has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes.
关键球员
For Tigres UANL, Ángel Correa (16 goals, 12 assists) and Juan Brunetta (18 goals, 8 assists) are crucial. Ángel Correa shows rising form with 3 goals and 5 assists in the last 5 games. Juan Brunetta scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games, also showing rising form. Diego Lainez (6 goals, 7 assists) shows declining form with 0 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games.
Not nominated: Ozziel Herrera (7G/4A), Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva (2G/1A).
For Guadalajara, Bryan Alonso González Oliván (6 goals, 5 assists) and Efraín Álvarez (3 goals, 7 assists) are important players. Bryan Alonso González Oliván is in rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Efraín Álvarez scored 0 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing rising form. Richard Ledezma (1 goal, 8 assists) contributed 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and shows stable form.
门将
Tigres UANL's goalkeeper, Nahuel Guzmán, played in 40 season appearances and kept 14 clean sheets. Guadalajara's goalkeeper, Óscar Alexánder Whalley Guardado, made 2 season appearances. Guadalajara recorded a total of 13 clean sheets.
影响因素
Tigres UANL's home performance shows strong offense with an average of 1.8 goals scored and solid defense with only 0.6 goals conceded per game. Guadalajara, however, concedes an average of 1.79 goals per away game.