Liga MX
Pachuca - Toluca
05/10/2026, 11:00 PM
预期进球
1.1
2.2
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
11%1:0
10%1:2
8%xG 分解
Pachuca
Toluca
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
32%
平局
32%
客胜
36%
进球数
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
双重机会
主胜或平局
64%
客胜或平局
68%
非平局
68%
双方进球
是
47%
否
53%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a narrow away win for Toluca with a 36% probability and 1.16 expected goals
- Toluca is in 1st place in Liga MX with 37 points, while Pachuca is in 9th place with 22 points
- Toluca demonstrates strong offensive performance this season with an average of 1.90 goals per game, compared to Pachuca's 1.38 goals per game
风险因素
- Toluca's current away form is weak, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
- The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a draw at 32%
概述
Pachuca (9th place, 22 points) host Toluca (1st place, 37 points) in a Liga MX match
May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM
Toluca aims to maintain their lead, while Pachuca seeks to climb the standings
近期状态
Pachuca's recent form across all competitions is WWLLW
Toluca's form is DLLWL
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Pachuca recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 8
Toluca recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 9
统计数据
Pachuca averages 1.38 goals scored per game and concedes 1.16 goals per game this season
They kept 8 clean sheets
Toluca averages 1.90 goals scored per game and concedes 1.00 goals per game
They kept 13 clean sheets
Pachuca's current goal scoring (1.8) is higher than their season average (1.5)
Toluca's goal production has slowed (1.8) compared to their season average (2.2)
In home games, Pachuca averages 1.37 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded
In away games, Toluca averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded
Both teams scored in 20 of Pachuca's games and 23 of Toluca's games
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 19 of Pachuca's games and 21 of Toluca's games
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca has 1 win, Toluca has 1 win, and there have been 3 draws
Both teams scored 8 goals in these encounters
The last match on May 4, 2026, ended in a 1:0 victory for Pachuca
The recent dominance in direct duels is described as even
关键球员
For Pachuca, V. Guzmán Guzmán is an important midfielder with 5 season goals and 7 assists, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 games and showing a rising form trend
Enner Valencia, an attacker, has 7 season goals and 1 assist, with 3 goals in his last 5 games and a stable form trend
Kenedy, also an attacker, has 8 season goals and 2 assists with stable form
Not nominated for Pachuca: Salomón Rondón (5G/0A)
For Toluca, Nicolás Castro is a midfielder with 5 season goals and 8 assists, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games
Marcel Ruiz, another midfielder, has 3 season goals and 4 assists, contributing 1 assist in his last 5 games
Jorge Díaz, also in midfield, has 2 season goals and 3 assists, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games
Not nominated for Toluca: Alexis Vega (4G/12A), Antonio Briseño (3G/1A), Sebastián Córdova (1G/2A), Fernando Arce (1G/1A)
门将
Pachuca's goalkeeper is Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna, who kept 8 clean sheets this season
Toluca's goalkeeper is Luis García, who kept 13 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Pachuca averages 1.37 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded in home games
Toluca averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded in away games
No specific venue history or weather data is available