Liga MX
Toluca - Pachuca
05/04/2026, 01:15 AM
预期进球
2.1
3.1
1.0
1:1
11%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%xG 分解
Toluca
Pachuca
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
61%
平局
23%
客胜
16%
进球数
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
双重机会
主胜或平局
84%
客胜或平局
39%
非平局
77%
双方进球
是
56%
否
44%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 61% probability
- Toluca is the league leader with a strong home record, averaging 1.92 goals per home game
- Toluca tactically dominates in possession (60%) and shots on target (Avg. 6.6 shots on target)
风险因素
- Toluca is missing key players such as Alexis Vega, Antonio Briseño, and Fernando Arce, with only 67% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Toluca's recent goal production has declined (averaging 1.8 goals), compared to their season average (2.2 goals)
- Pachuca is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 2.0 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals), indicating a positive form trend
概述
Toluca (1st place, 37 points) hosts Pachuca (9th place, 22 points) in Liga MX on May 4, 2026, 2:15 AM
The hosts lead the table and aim to extend their lead
近期状态
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Toluca shows a negative trend with form LDLLW in their last five matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
The team recently lost 0-1 away against Querétaro
Pachuca, on the other hand, has a form of WWWLL in their last five matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
The visitors recently lost 1-3 away against Tijuana
统计数据
Toluca averages 1.95 goals per game and concedes 1.0 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.92 goals scored and 0.84 goals conceded per home game
Pachuca averages 1.39 goals per game and 1.19 goals conceded per game this season
Away from home, Pachuca scores 1.41 goals and concedes 1.41 goals per away game
Toluca kept 13 clean sheets this season, Pachuca 7 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 23 of Toluca's games and 20 of Pachuca's games
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Toluca recorded 2 wins
Pachuca had 0 wins, while 3 matches ended in a draw
Toluca scored 11 goals, Pachuca 9 goals
The last encounter on March 22, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw
关键球员
For Toluca, Marcel Ruiz is important with 3 goals and 4 assists, and a season average rating of 7.28
Jesús Angulo contributed 7 goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 7.02
Sebastián Córdova scored 1 goal and 2 assists and shows a rising form trend
For Pachuca, Kenedy with 8 goals and 2 assists and Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán with 5 goals and 7 assists are notable
Enner Valencia contributed 6 goals and 1 assist
门将
Luis García is Toluca's goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.95 and 18 appearances
Toluca kept a total of 13 clean sheets this season, with 5 of them in home games
Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna, Pachuca's goalkeeper, made 35 appearances with an average rating of 6.91
Pachuca kept 7 clean sheets this season, with 3 of them in away games
影响因素
Toluca shows a strong offense at home, averaging 1.92 goals scored per home game
The home team is defensively solid with only 0.84 goals conceded per home game