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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Gimnasia La Plata

05/11/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
预期进球
Vélez Sarsfield
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Gimnasia La Plata
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
VSGLP

Vélez Sarsfield

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.21倍)
+0.36
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
-0.18
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.03
Diego Valdés替补席 (0球, 5助攻)
Matías Pellegrini替补席 (3球, 2助攻)

Gimnasia La Plata

最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
小样本 (8场) - 均值回归
+0.03
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.02
Nicolás Barros Schelotto未进大名单 (3球, 3助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.3球)

联赛

低进球联赛 (场均2.1球)
-0.43
-0.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

46%

平局

31%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

54%

非平局

69%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Mathematical analysis: Vélez Sarsfield has a home win probability of 46%
  • Gimnasia La Plata is in top form with 4 consecutive wins
  • Vélez Sarsfield currently scores more frequently (1.5) than their season average (1.3)
风险因素
  • Vélez Sarsfield is missing key players: Only 65% of usual goal threat is available without Diego Valdés (0G/5A) and Matías Pellegrini (3G/2A)
  • Vélez Sarsfield has drawn three consecutive matches in their last five games
  • Gimnasia La Plata dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning 2 out of 3 matches
概述

Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 28 points) host Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 26 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on May 11, 2026, 2:30 AM

Vélez Sarsfield aims to solidify its top positions

Gimnasia La Plata could close the gap to Vélez with a win

近期状态

Vélez Sarsfield's form in the last five games is LWDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss during this period

The last appearance ended in a draw, which is their third consecutive draw

Gimnasia La Plata is in strong form with a record of LWWWW

They have 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches

The team has won their last four games in a row

统计数据

Vélez Sarsfield scored an average of 1.13 goals per game and conceded 0.75 goals per game this season

The team kept 7 clean sheets

In home games, the goal average is 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Gimnasia La Plata averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per match

The team achieved 5 clean sheets

Away from home, Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded

历史交锋

In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, Vélez Sarsfield secured 1 win and Gimnasia La Plata claimed 2 wins

There were no draws

The goal difference of 5:2 favors Gimnasia La Plata

Gimnasia La Plata won the last encounter on November 10, 2025, with a score of 2:0

关键球员

Florián Monzón, an attacker for Vélez Sarsfield, scored 6 goals this season

In his last 5 games, he scored 3 times with stable form

Midfielder Manuel Lanzini recorded 3 season goals, his form is currently declining

Lucas Robertone, also a midfielder, scored 1 season goal and shows a rising form

For Gimnasia La Plata, attacker Marcelo Torres leads with 7 goals, 3 of which in the last 5 games with stable form

Agustín Auzmendi, also in attack, contributed 2 goals and 2 assists and shows a rising form

Alexis Steimbach in midfield has 4 assists this season, 2 of them in the last 5 games

门将

Vélez Sarsfield goalkeeper Álvaro Montero has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Gimnasia La Plata's goalkeeper, Nelson Insfrán, has 5 clean sheets and shows a rising form

影响因素

Vélez Sarsfield shows a solid home defense with an average of 0.75 goals conceded per home game

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.14 goals scored per away match

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