Friendly International

Morocco - Madagascar

06/02/2026, 05:00 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
Morocco
2.3
Total xG
3.3
Madagascar
0.9
最可能的比分

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

8%
xG 分解
MORMAD

Morocco

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.58倍)
+1.03
防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.95
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.63
状态上升 (3 vs 2.3 赛季平均)
+0.22
排名优势 (第11位 vs 第108位, 相差97位)
+0.16
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.10
Achraf Hakimi未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
Neil El Aynaoui未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
58%进球产出缺失 (仅23%可用)

Madagascar

小样本 (1场) - 均值回归
+0.65
排名劣势 (第108位 vs 第11位, 相差97位)
-0.16
50%进球产出缺失 (仅50%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.35
+0.35
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

68%

平局

20%

客胜

12%

进球数

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

双重机会

主胜或平局

88%

客胜或平局

32%

非平局

80%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • Significant squad impact for Morocco: Only 24% of the usual starting XI strength is available, without Achraf Hakimi and Neil El Aynaoui
  • Squad impact for Madagascar: Only 50% of the usual starting XI strength is available
  • Morocco has shown a possession-dominant style in the last 5 games with an average of 7.0 shots on target
风险因素
  • Limited data available for Madagascar's season statistics and tactical metrics
  • Lack of historical head-to-head data, making it difficult to assess past encounters
概述

Morocco host Madagascar in a Friendly International match at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah on June 2, 2026, 6:00 PM

The game will be played on a grass surface

The mathematical analysis clearly favors Morocco with a 68% probability of a home win

近期状态

Morocco shows strong form across all competitions with WWDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches

Madagascar's form is W, representing 1 win from their last five matches

Morocco won their last home game 5-0 against Burundi

Madagascar won their only recorded away game 5-2 against Kyrgyz Republic

统计数据

Morocco averages 2.67 home goals per game this season and concedes 0.67 goals

They have kept 1 clean sheet in home matches

Madagascar averages 3.0 away goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals

They have kept 0 clean sheets in their away matches

The mathematical prediction expects 2.33 goals for Morocco and 0.92 goals for Madagascar

The probability of both teams scoring is 56%

历史交锋

There are no historical head-to-head matches between Morocco and Madagascar in the provided dataset

关键球员

For Morocco, Ismael Saibari shows rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 261 minutes from the last 5 games

Abde Ezzalzouli is also in rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 425 minutes over the last 5 games

Bilal El Khannouss has contributed 2 assists in the last 5 games

For Madagascar, Thomas Fontaine scored 1 goal in 1 game this season

Clément Couturier also recorded 1 season goal

Rayan Raveloson also contributed 1 season goal

门将

Morocco's goalkeeper Munir El Kajoui played in 1 recorded game

Morocco has kept 1 clean sheet this season

Madagascar's goalkeeper Geordan Dupire played in 1 recorded game

Madagascar has kept 0 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Morocco has a strong offense in home games, averaging 2.67 goals per game

The defense is also solid, conceding an average of 0.67 goals at home

Madagascar shows offensive strength away with an average of 3.0 goals per game, but also defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.5 goals

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