Friendly International

Iran - Gambia

05/29/2026, 03:30 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Iran
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Gambia
1.7
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
IRAGAM

Iran

小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
+0.96
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.27
排名劣势 (第115位 vs 第21位, 相差94位)
-0.22
全员可用

Gambia

进攻实力 (联赛平均的2.31倍)
+1.83
小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
-1.37
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.28
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第21位 vs 第115位, 相差94位)
+0.12
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.03
A. Gholizadeh未进大名单 (1球, 0助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅66%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.33
+0.33
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

26%

平局

26%

客胜

47%

进球数

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

双重机会

主胜或平局

53%

客胜或平局

74%

非平局

74%

双方进球

61%

39%

关键因素
  • Favorites: The mathematical analysis predicts a 47% win probability for Iran
  • Offensive strength: Iran shows a significantly higher scoring rate with an average of 3.0 goals per game compared to Gambia (1.0 goals)
  • Squad Impact Gambia: For Gambia, only 50% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available
风险因素
  • Squad Impact Iran: A. Gholizadeh is missing, only 67% of seasonal goal threat is available
  • Tactical Efficiency Iran: Iran averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, despite a high scoring rate
概述

Gambia hosts Iran in a Friendly International match at Antalya Stadyumu

Kick-off is on May 29, 2026, 5:30 PM

The mathematical analysis identifies Iran as the favorite with a 47% win probability

近期状态

Gambia's form in the last three games is WDL (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Their last match was a 1-3 loss against Senegal

Iran shows LWDLW form in their last five games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

They recently secured a 5-0 win against Costa Rica

统计数据

Gambia averaged 1.0 goal scored per game this season and conceded 3.0 goals

Iran scored an average of 3.0 goals per game and conceded 1.0 goal

Antalya Stadyumu has seen an average of 5.0 goals in its single recorded match

0 out of 1 games there ended with both teams scoring, and 1 out of 1 games had over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

There are no previous head-to-head encounters between these teams in the provided data

关键球员

For Gambia: Omar Colley (Defender) scored 1 goal this season and had a 6.24 rating in the last game

Baboucarr Gaye (Goalkeeper) shows a rising form trend with a +0.88 delta

Adama Bojang (Attacker) achieved a 6.43 rating in the last game

For Iran: Mehdi Taremi (Attacker) has 3 season goals and 1 assist, with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games

Mohammad Mohebi (Attacker) scored 1 season goal and 2 goals in his last 3 games

Saman Ghoddos (Midfielder) appeared in 4 of the last 5 games

门将

Gambia is expected to field Baboucarr Gaye, who has 0 clean sheets this season

Baboucarr Gaye's form is rising, with an average rating of 6.56 in his last 5 games

Iran is expected to start Seyed Hossein Hosseini, who recorded 1 clean sheet this season

影响因素

Antalya Stadyumu has seen an average of 5.0 goals in its only recorded match

The venue had over 2.5 goals in 1 of 1 games

Iran won its only match at this stadium 5-0 against Costa Rica

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