World Cup
Mexico - South Africa
06/11/2026, 07:00 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.3
1.1
1:1
13%1:0
12%0:1
10%0:0
10%2:1
8%xG 分解
Mexico
South Africa
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
40%
平局
28%
客胜
32%
进球数
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
双重机会
主胜或平局
68%
客胜或平局
60%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
47%
否
53%
关键因素
- Mexico's strong defensive record (avg 0.25 goals conceded) and positive scoring trend (current 2.3 goals/game vs 1.9 season avg)
- The mathematical analysis predicts Mexico as favorites with a 40% win probability and 1.25 expected goals
- Mexico's solid home record with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, conceding only 2 goals
风险因素
- The mathematical model projects a close match, with South Africa having a 32% win probability and a 28% chance of a draw
- Limited historical head-to-head data, with only one previous match recorded in 2010
- The partial absence of xG data for South Africa's last 5 games impacts the completeness of advanced performance metrics
概述
Mexico host South Africa at Estadio Banorte for a World Cup group stage match on June 11, 2026, 8:00 PM
This marks the opening of the tournament's group phase
近期状态
Mexico is in good form with a DDWWW record (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches
Recent results include a 5-1 win against Serbia, a 1-0 win against Australia, and a 2-0 win against Ghana
The streak also features two draws against Belgium (1-1) and Portugal (0-0)
South Africa's form in their last five games is DWDLD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
Their latest results are a 0-0 draw against Nicaragua, a 1-2 loss to Panama, and a 1-1 draw against Panama
A 3-0 win against Rwanda and a 0-0 draw against Zimbabwe complete their record
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Mexico has scored an average of 1.88 goals per game and conceded 0.25 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.86 goals scored and 0.29 goals conceded per home game
They have kept 6 clean sheets
South Africa has scored an average of 1.7 goals per game and conceded 0.6 goals per game
Away from home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per away game
The team has achieved 5 clean sheets
Estadio Banorte has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game across 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
There has only been one previous head-to-head encounter between Mexico and South Africa
This match took place on June 11, 2010, and ended in a 1-1 draw
Both teams scored one goal in that fixture
Therefore, the historical record shows no clear dominance from either team
关键球员
For Mexico, Julián Quiñones (3 goals in 4 games) and Johan Vásquez (3 goals in 3 games) are notable
Brian Gutiérrez contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games
For South Africa, Jayden Adams was the most prolific scorer with 2 goals in 4 games
Khuliso Mudau provided 1 assist in 4 games
Lyle Foster played in 4 matches but recorded no goals or assists
门将
Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has featured in 3 of the team's last games
Mexico has recorded 6 clean sheets this season
For South Africa, Ronwen Williams was in goal for 4 of the team's last games
South Africa has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The match will take place at Estadio Banorte on a grass surface
Estadio Banorte has averaged 3.2 goals per game in 5 recorded matches
At this stadium, both teams scored in 60% of games, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals
Mexico scores an average of 1.86 goals per home game and concedes 0.29 goals per home game
South Africa scores an average of 1.5 goals per away game and concedes 0.75 goals per away game