World Cup

Tunisia - Japan

06/21/2026, 04:00 AM

0 : 4
预期进球
Tunisia
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Japan
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
TUNJAP

Tunisia

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.2倍)
-1.63
小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
+1.26
排名劣势 (第46位 vs 第19位, 相差27位)
-0.23
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.07
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 0.6 赛季平均)
-0.04

Japan

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.37
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.23
小样本 (1场) - 均值回归
-0.17
最近5场中4场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第19位 vs 第46位, 相差27位)
+0.09
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.3球)
+0.79
+0.79
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

35%

平局

30%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

65%

非平局

70%

双方进球

54%

46%

关键因素
  • Japan's strong form of 4 wins and 1 draw contrasts with Tunisia's 3 consecutive losses and overall form of 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses
  • Japan's low active goal share, with only 4% of their seasonal goal contribution available, could impact their attacking strength despite their good form
  • Japan's offensive tactical approach with an average of 5.0 shots on target in recent games, compared to Tunisia's counter-oriented style and 2.0 shots on target
风险因素
  • Tunisia's recent defensive vulnerability, allowing an average of 2.75 goals per game in recent matches
  • The venue's history of high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.8 total goals per game, and all 5 previous games seeing both teams score and over 2.5 goals
  • Tunisia's low recent goal production of 0.5 goals per game, falling below their season average of 2.2 goals
概述

Tunisia (4th place, 0 points) host Japan (3rd place, 1 point) in a World Cup group stage match at Estadio BBVA Bancomer. The match is scheduled for June 21, 2026, 5:00 AM. Both teams urgently need points to keep their qualification hopes alive

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Tunisia shows a negative trend with a form of WDLLL

The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

The last three matches all ended in defeat

Japan, on the other hand, is in excellent form with WWWWD

The team secured 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five games

Their last match ended in a draw, preceded by four consecutive wins

统计数据

Tunisia scored an average of 2.20 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 0.00 goals

At home, they average 2.17 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded

Japan displays a strong offense with an average of 3.38 goals per game and conceded only an average of 0.19 goals

Away from home, Japan scores an average of 3.38 goals and concedes an average of 0.25 goals

At Estadio BBVA Bancomer, the last 5 matches saw an average of 3.8 goals per game

In all 5 of these matches, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

There are no head-to-head matches between Tunisia and Japan in the dataset

关键球员

For Tunisia, the following players stand out

Hannibal in midfield with 1 assist and a season average rating of 7.27

Montassar Talbi in defense with a season average rating of 7.15

Omar Rekik in defense with 1 season goal and an average rating of 6.62

For Japan, these players are crucial

Keito Nakamura in attack with 1 season goal and an average rating of 7.71 (2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 games)

Daichi Kamada in midfield with 1 season goal and an average rating of 7.59

Junya Ito in attack with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a season average rating of 6.98

门将

Tunisia's goalkeeper Aymen Dahmen has kept 10 clean sheets this season

Japan's goalkeeper Zion Suzuki, with a season average rating of 6.70, recorded 13 clean sheets

影响因素

Tunisia shows a home goal average of 2.17 and 0.00 goals conceded

Japan displays a strong away offensive value of 3.38 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded

Estadio BBVA Bancomer is known for high-scoring matches

An average of 3.8 goals are scored per game

In all five of the last matches at this venue, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

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