France (2nd place, 3 points) faces Iraq (4th place, 0 points) in a World Cup group stage match. The game takes place on June 22, 2026, 11:00 PM at Lincoln Financial Field. The mathematical analysis predicts a clear home win for France with a 90% probability and 3.34 expected goals, while Iraq is expected to score only 0.46 goals.

France shows strong form with four wins and one loss in their last five matches across all competitions (WWLWW). Their last game ended in a 3-1 victory. Iraq's recent form includes two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings (WWDLL). The team lost their last match 1-4 and is currently on a two-game losing streak.

France scores an average of 2.67 goals per game and concedes 0.67 goals per game this season. Their home record is particularly strong, with an average of 3.00 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home match, including three clean sheets. Iraq scores an average of 1.50 goals and concedes 0.65 goals per season. Away from home, the average is 1.56 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded, with twelve clean sheets. Lincoln Financial Field averages 2.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 0 out of 2 matches and over 2.5 goals in 1 out of 2 matches.

No previous direct encounters between France and Iraq are recorded in the dataset.

For France, key players include Kylian Mbappé (two season goals, three goals in last five games, average rating 7.96), Michael Olise (two season assists, four goals and one assist in last five games, average rating 8.81), and Adrien Rabiot (one season assist, one assist in last five games, average rating 7.55). For Iraq, Aymen Hussein (one season goal, two goals in last five games, average rating 7.2), Amir Al-Ammari (one goal and three assists in last five games, average rating 6.63), and Merchas Doski (one goal in last five games, average rating 6.94) are notable.

Mike Maignan is in goal for France, showing a rising form trend. The team has achieved three clean sheets this season. For Iraq, Ahmed Basil Fadhil is the goalkeeper, with an average rating of 7.14 in his last five games. Iraq has recorded twelve clean sheets this season.

France benefits from its home strength, averaging 3.00 goals scored and conceding only 0.33 goals in home matches. Lincoln Financial Field shows an average of 2.0 total goals per game, with a 0% rate for 'both teams to score' and a 50% rate for 'over 2.5 goals'.