World Cup

Ecuador - Germany

06/25/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Ecuador
0.8
Total xG
2.1
Germany
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

14%

0:2

10%

1:0

9%
xG 分解
ECUGER

Ecuador

防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.51
排名劣势 (第24位 vs 第12位, 相差12位)
-0.11
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.06

Germany

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.57
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3.4球)
+0.51
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.21倍)
-0.32
排名优势 (第12位 vs 第24位, 相差12位)
+0.07
Nathaniel Brown未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
31%进球产出缺失 (仅72%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

22%

平局

32%

客胜

45%

进球数

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

双重机会

主胜或平局

55%

客胜或平局

78%

非平局

68%

双方进球

42%

58%

关键因素
  • Germany's strong form with five consecutive wins and high goal threat
  • Ecuador's outstanding defense with only 0.28 goals conceded on average this season and 13 clean sheets
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Germany with 45% probability and 1.27 expected goals
风险因素
  • Germany's goal threat is reduced by 27% due to Nathaniel Brown's absence (1 goal, 1 assist), as only 73% of the usual starting XI's strength is available
  • Ecuador's low offensive efficiency with an average of only 0.78 goals per game and 10 matches without scoring
  • MetLife Stadium has shown a high goal average (3.67 goals) and 100% 'Both Teams To Score' in the last three games, which could challenge Ecuador's defense
概述

Ecuador (3rd place, 1 point) faces Germany (1st place, 6 points) at MetLife Stadium. The World Cup match takes place on June 25, 2026, 9:00 PM. Germany has already qualified for the round of 16 and aims to secure the top spot, while Ecuador is still fighting for a place in the knockout stage.

近期状态

Ecuador's form in the last five games is DWWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes two wins, two draws, and one loss

Their last match ended in a draw (0-0 against Curacao)

Germany is in top form with WWWWW in their last five games

They have won all five matches

Their last game was a 2-1 victory against Côte d'Ivoire

统计数据

Ecuador averages 0.78 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.28 goals per game this season

The team kept 13 clean sheets and failed to score in 10 matches

Germany scores an average of 2.67 goals per game and concedes 0.5 goals per game

They kept 4 clean sheets and failed to score in only one match

Ecuador's home strength shows 0.79 goals scored and 0.14 goals conceded per game

Germany's away record features 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game

Tactical analysis shows Ecuador scores consistently (approx. 1.5 goals per game)

Germany currently scores more often (3.4) than their season average (3.1)

历史交锋

There has been only one head-to-head match between these two teams

Germany won this encounter 3-0 on June 20, 2006

Based on this single result, Germany dominates the historical record

关键球员

For Ecuador, Moisés Caicedo (Midfielder, AvgRating 7.86), Pedro Vite (Midfielder, AvgRating 7.69), and Gonzalo Plata (Attacker, AvgRating 7.53) are in the starting XI

John Yeboah (Attacker, AvgRating 7.47) provided 2 assists in the last 5 games

Enner Valencia (Attacker, AvgRating 6.39) scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Germany, Joshua Kimmich (Midfielder, AvgRating 7.93) and Felix Nmecha (Midfielder, AvgRating 7.92) are key players

Kai Havertz (Attacker, AvgRating 7.14) scored 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Joshua Kimmich provided 6 assists in the last 5 games

门将

Ecuador relies on Hernán Galíndez (AvgRating 6.80), who shows a rising form trend (AvgRating 7.24) in the last 5 games

Germany has Manuel Neuer (AvgRating 6.52) in goal, whose form is stable (AvgRating 6.47) in the last 5 games

Ecuador recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Germany achieved this in 4 games

影响因素

The match takes place at MetLife Stadium on artificial turf

Germany has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses with 7:1 goals on artificial turf

No specific data is available for Ecuador on artificial turf

The venue has seen an average of 3.67 goals per game in 3 matches

Both teams scored in all 3 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 3 matches

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。