World Cup

Brazil - Japan

06/29/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Brazil
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Japan
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
BRAJAP

Brazil

防守实力 (场均失0.8球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.61
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均3球)
+0.35
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.3倍)
-0.28
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第19位, 相差13位)
+0.08
全员可用

Japan

防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.53
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.21倍)
-0.45
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第6位, 相差13位)
-0.14
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.03
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

44%

平局

32%

客胜

24%

进球数

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

双重机会

主胜或平局

76%

客胜或平局

56%

非平局

68%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Brazil is missing a significant portion of their goal production (only 29% available)
  • Japan's extremely strong defense, conceding an average of 0.19 goals per game, is a key to their success
  • Brazil shows a strong offense with an average of 7.6 shots on target, while Japan only manages 4.0 on average
风险因素
  • Both teams have a negative record on artificial turf (Brazil 0W-1D-2L, Japan 0W-2D-0L)
  • Japan's current goal production of 1.8 goals per game is below their season average of 2.1 goals
概述

Brazil (1st place, 7 points) faces Japan (2nd place, 5 points) at NRG Stadium

World Cup Round of 16 match on June 29, 2026, 5:00 PM

Brazil qualified as group winners, Japan as group runners-up

This match determines who advances to the quarter-finals of the tournament

近期状态

Brazil is in strong form with WWDWW

In the last 5 matches, they achieved 4 wins and 1 draw, without any losses

They have won their last two games

Japan's form is WWDWD

In the last 5 matches, they achieved 3 wins and 2 draws, without any losses

Japan recently drew 1-1, following a 4-0 victory

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Brazil averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 0.94 goals

Japan shows a very strong offense with an average of 3.38 goals per game and an extremely stable defense conceding 0.19 goals per game

In home games, Brazil scores 1.29 goals and concedes only 0.36 goals

Japan concedes only 0.25 goals per away game

Brazil is currently scoring more frequently (3.0) than their season average (1.8)

Japan's goal production is faltering (1.8), while the season average is 2.1

NRG Stadium sees an average of 4.2 goals per game

In 3 of 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 3 of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored

历史交锋

There have been a total of 2 head-to-head matches between Brazil and Japan

Both teams have secured 1 win each, with no draws

The goal difference is 6:4 in favor of Brazil

The last encounter on October 14, 2025, ended 2:3 for Brazil

The recent head-to-head record is even

关键球员

For Brazil, Vinicius Junior with 4 season goals and 1 assist, Matheus Cunha with 3 season goals, and Bruno Guimarães with 3 assists are important players

Vinicius Junior shows a declining form trend over the last 5 games (FormTrend -0.21)

Matheus Cunha also has a declining form (FormTrend -0.50)

For Japan, Ayase Ueda with 2 goals and 1 assist, Daichi Kamada with 2 goals, and Keito Nakamura with 1 goal and 1 assist are key players

Ayase Ueda (FormTrend -0.64), Daichi Kamada (FormTrend -0.31), and Keito Nakamura (FormTrend -0.21) all show a declining form trend

门将

Alisson is the goalkeeper for Brazil, who achieved 6 clean sheets this season

For Japan, Zion Suzuki is in goal; his team recorded an impressive 13 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match will be played on artificial turf

Brazil has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses (2:4 goals) on artificial turf

Japan has a record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses (3:3 goals) on artificial turf

NRG Stadium records an average of 4.2 goals per game

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