World Cup
Mexico - Ecuador
07/01/2026, 02:00 AM
预期进球
1.2
2.0
0.8
0:0
16%1:1
15%1:0
14%0:1
10%2:0
9%xG 分解
Mexico
Ecuador
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
41%
平局
34%
客胜
25%
进球数
Over 1.5
61%
Under 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
双重机会
主胜或平局
75%
客胜或平局
59%
非平局
66%
双方进球
是
40%
否
60%
关键因素
- Mexico's perfect group stage form with five consecutive wins and only 0.25 goals conceded on season average makes them favorites
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Mexico with 42% probability and 1.15 expected home goals
- Ecuador shows an improved offense (currently 1.8 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals), indicating more attacking threat
风险因素
- Ecuador's very strong season defense (0.28 goals conceded on average, 13 clean sheets) could pose a challenge for Mexico
- The pipeline prediction indicates a high 34% probability of a draw, suggesting a tight match
- The only direct head-to-head match between these two teams resulted in a 1-1 draw
概述
Mexico (1st place, 9 points) host Ecuador (3rd place, 4 points) at Estadio Banorte
World Cup match on July 1, 2026, 3:00 AM
Mexico enters as group winners, while Ecuador is fighting for progression
近期状态
Mexico shows an immaculate form with five wins in their last five matches (WWWWW)
Mexico won their last game 3-0 against the Czech Republic
Ecuador has achieved three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five games (WWLDW)
Ecuador recently won 2-1 against Germany
统计数据
Mexico is offensively strong this season with an average of 1.88 goals per game and defensively outstanding with only 0.25 goals conceded on average
The team recorded 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 2 matches
Ecuador scores an average of 0.78 goals per game and has a very strong defense with only 0.28 goals conceded per match
Ecuador achieved 13 clean sheets and both teams scored in only 3 matches
At Estadio Banorte, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 3 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
There has only been one head-to-head match between Mexico and Ecuador so far
Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on October 15, 2025
关键球员
Mexico: Roberto Alvarado with a season average rating of 7.53 and 2 assists
Julián Quiñones with a season average rating of 7.5 and 2 goals
Luis Romo with a season average rating of 7.32, 1 goal and 1 assist
Ecuador: Pedro Vite with a season average rating of 7.61 and 1 assist
Moisés Caicedo with a season average rating of 7.6
Gonzalo Plata with a season average rating of 7.33 and 1 goal
门将
Mexico's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has recorded 6 clean sheets this season
Ecuador's goalkeeper Hernán Galíndez has recorded 13 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The grass pitch at Estadio Banorte serves as the playing surface
Mexico scored an average of 1.86 home goals and conceded 0.29 home goals
Ecuador scored an average of 0.75 away goals and conceded 0.75 away goals
Estadio Banorte recorded an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 encounters