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La Liga

Elche - Espanyol

03/01/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Elche
1.3
Total xG
3.5
Espanyol
2.2
最可能的比分

1:2

9%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
xG 分解
ELCESP

Elche

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.14
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第9位, 相差8位)
-0.11
防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.06

Espanyol

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.23倍)
+1.66
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.10
排名优势 (第9位 vs 第17位, 相差8位)
+0.09
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

21%

平局

22%

客胜

57%

进球数

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

双重机会

主胜或平局

43%

客胜或平局

79%

非平局

78%

双方进球

66%

34%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis clearly favors Espanyol with a 57% win probability and 2.23 expected goals
  • Contrasting offensive trends: Espanyol has been scoring more frequently recently (1.6 goals/game) than their season average, while Elche's goal production (1.3) is declining
  • Historical dominance: Espanyol is undefeated in the last five head-to-head matches (3 wins, 2 draws)
风险因素
  • Extremely poor form for both teams (LLLDL), which makes the outcome unpredictable
  • Elche's strong home defense (only avg 0.81 goals conceded) could neutralize Espanyol's attack, contradicting the high goal prediction
概述

Elche (17th place, 25 points) hosts Espanyol (9th place, 35 points) at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

The La Liga match takes place on March 1, 2026, 2:00 PM

Elche is fighting for crucial points against relegation, while Espanyol aims to stay in touch with the top half of the table

近期状态

Both teams are in extremely poor form

Elche's form from the last five games: LLLDL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

Espanyol's form from the last five games: LLLDL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

Neither team has won any of their last five matches and are in desperate need of a victory

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

The season statistics of both teams are strikingly similar

Both Elche and Espanyol have conceded 37 goals in 25 matches (avg 1.48 per game)

Offensively, they are also nearly identical, with 32 goals for Elche (avg 1.28) and 31 for Espanyol (avg 1.24)

A significant difference is Elche's home strength: they concede only avg 0.81 goals at home, whereas Espanyol concedes avg 1.58 goals away

历史交锋

The historical record clearly favors Espanyol

In the last five direct encounters, there were 3 wins for Espanyol and 2 draws, with Elche failing to win

The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Espanyol

The last meeting was won by Espanyol 1-0

关键球员

André Silva (6 season goals)

Rafa Mir (6 season goals)

Germán Valera (4 goals, 3 assists)

Pere Milla (6 season goals)

Kike García (4 goals, 1 assist)

Carlos Romero (4 goals, 2 assists)

门将

In goal, Matías Dituro for Elche will face Manuel Iori for Espanyol

So far this season, Espanyol has kept 7 clean sheets

Elche has managed this in 6 matches

影响因素

Elche has a strong defensive record at their home stadium, conceding an average of just 0.81 goals per game

Matches at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero have been high-scoring recently, with an average of 3.2 goals in the last five games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of these home matches

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