La Liga
FC Barcelona - Sevilla
03/15/2026, 03:15 PM
预期进球
2.7
3.5
0.8
2:0
11%3:0
10%2:1
9%3:1
8%1:1
7%xG 分解
FC Barcelona
Sevilla
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
77%
平局
15%
客胜
7%
进球数
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
双重机会
主胜或平局
93%
客胜或平局
23%
非平局
85%
双方进球
是
51%
否
49%
关键因素
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win with 78% probability and calculates 2.71 expected home goals
- Form Trend: FC Barcelona is in strong form across all competitions (WWWWD), while Sevilla has only achieved 1 win in their last 5 games (DDWDD)
- Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Barcelona scores 2.73 goals per home game and concedes only 0.4 goals, whereas Sevilla concedes 1.83 goals per away match
风险因素
- Limited offensive strength for Barcelona: Only 68% of usual starting XI goal threat available, with five key players not in the lineup (Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres, Fermín López, Jules Koundé, Eric Garcí)
- Sevilla has 69% of their usual goal production available, indicating some compensation for absences
- Sevilla averages only 2.8 shots on target (average), suggesting an inefficient offense
- Sevilla concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game
概述
FC Barcelona (1st place, 67 points) host Sevilla (15th place, 31 points) at Camp Nou
La Liga match on March 15, 2026, 4:15 PM
Barcelona leads the league and aims to extend their narrow lead
近期状态
FC Barcelona shows strong form across all competitions with WWWWD (4 wins, 1 draw)
Their last game ended in a draw, preceded by four consecutive wins
Sevilla is unbeaten in their last five games, but with only DDWDD (1 win, 4 draws)
They have won only one of their last five matches and have not won in two games
统计数据
FC Barcelona scores an average of 2.67 goals per game and concedes 0.96 goals
At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 2.73 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded
Sevilla averages 1.30 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Sevilla concedes an average of 1.83 goals per match
At Camp Nou, an average of 3.8 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches
All 5 of these games ended with over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in 2 of 5 cases
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches over the last two years, FC Barcelona won 4 times and Sevilla won 1 time
The goal difference of 13 to 7 clearly favors Barcelona
The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended in a 4-1 victory for Sevilla
Despite the last result, Barcelona has been dominant in recent head-to-head clashes
关键球员
For FC Barcelona, Robert Lewandowski (11 goals, 1 assist), Raphinha (8 goals, 3 assists), and Pedri (2 goals, 7 assists) are key offensive players
Sevilla relies on Akor Adams (7 goals, 4 assists), Djibril Sow (4 goals, 1 assist), and Alexis Sánchez (3 goals, 1 assist) for goal threat
门将
Joan García in goal for FC Barcelona has kept 11 clean sheets this season
Odysseas Vlachodimos, Sevilla's goalkeeper, has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
影响因素
FC Barcelona benefits from a clear home advantage at Camp Nou
An average of 3.8 goals per game are scored here, and over 2.5 goals have been scored in all of the last 5 matches
Barcelona scores an average of 2.73 goals at home and concedes only 0.4 goals
Sevilla, on the other hand, concedes an average of 1.83 goals away from home