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La Liga

Real Madrid - Elche

03/14/2026, 08:00 PM

4 : 1
预期进球
Real Madrid
2.6
Total xG
3.4
Elche
0.7
最可能的比分

2:0

12%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

1:1

8%
xG 分解
RMELC

Real Madrid

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.48倍)
+1.38
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.51
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.20
状态下滑 (1.6 vs 2.3 赛季平均)
-0.20
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第17位, 相差15位)
+0.18
Arda Güler替补席 (3球, 8助攻)
Gonzalo García替补席 (4球, 0助攻)
Álvaro Carreras 未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
Trent Alexander-Arnold 替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Raúl Asencio未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
40%进球产出缺失 (仅64%可用)

Elche

防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.40
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.14
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第2位, 相差15位)
-0.13
Álvaro Rodríguez替补席 (5球, 4助攻)
Marc Aguado替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Pedro Bigas替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅79%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

77%

平局

16%

客胜

7%

进球数

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

双重机会

主胜或平局

93%

客胜或平局

23%

非平局

84%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a very high 77% probability for a home win
  • Form: Real Madrid is in better form with 3 wins from their last 5 games compared to Elche with no wins
  • Home strength vs. away weakness: Real Madrid scores 2.07 goals at home and concedes only 0.64, while Elche concedes 2.6 goals away
风险因素
  • Limited starting XI strength for Real Madrid: Only 65% of usual goal threat available (without Arda Güler, Gonzalo García, Álvaro Carreras, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Raúl Asencio)
  • Fatigue: Real Madrid had only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Elche's defensive vulnerability away: The team concedes an average of 2.6 goals per away game
概述

Real Madrid (2nd place, 63 points) host Elche (17th place, 26 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

La Liga match on March 14, 2026, 9:00 PM

The Whites aim for a victory to close the gap on league leaders FC Barcelona (67 points)

近期状态

Real Madrid shows mixed form with a record of LWLWW in their last five matches

This equates to 3 wins and 2 losses

Elche is in a difficult phase with LDLDL in their last five games

This corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Real Madrid averaged 2.07 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 2.07 goals scored and only 0.64 goals conceded per home game

They kept 11 clean sheets, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 matches

Elche averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.52 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Elche is defensively vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per away game and recording 0 clean sheets

At the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 4 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Real Madrid dominated with 3 wins and 2 draws

Elche failed to win any of these matches

Real Madrid scored a total of 13 goals, while Elche conceded 5 goals

The last meeting on November 23, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

关键球员

Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior (9 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.29) is a key offensive player

Federico Valverde (2 goals, 7 assists, avg. 7.28) is important in midfield

Dean Huijsen (1 goal, 2 assists, avg. 7.07) contributes to defense and build-up play

Elche: André Silva (7 goals, 0 assists, avg. 6.89) is the most dangerous goal scorer

Germán Valera (4 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.02) is also an important offensive player

Martim Neto (2 goals, 5 assists, avg. 6.81) provides assists from midfield

门将

Thibaut Courtois of Real Madrid has 11 clean sheets this season and an average rating of 6.84

Matías Dituro of Elche recorded 6 clean sheets with an average rating of 7.23

影响因素

The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu is a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 4 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Real Madrid shows strong home performance with an average of 2.07 goals scored and 0.64 goals conceded

Elche is significantly weaker away with 1.3 goals scored and 2.6 goals conceded

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