La Liga
Mallorca - Real Madrid
04/04/2026, 02:15 PM
预期进球
1.3
3.1
1.8
1:1
12%1:2
10%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
Mallorca
Real Madrid
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
25%
平局
26%
客胜
49%
进球数
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
双重机会
主胜或平局
51%
客胜或平局
75%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
61%
否
39%
关键因素
- Form Trend: Real Madrid shows a positive form development with 5 consecutive wins, while Mallorca has a negative trend
- Offensive Power: Real Madrid is offensively strong with an average of 6.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Mallorca's 4.2
- H2H Dominance: Real Madrid won 4 of the last 5 direct encounters against Mallorca, underscoring their historical superiority
风险因素
- Real Madrid Injury List: Real Madrid must do without key players such as F. Valverde Dipetta (Red Card Suspension), T. Courtois (Thigh Muscle Strain), and R. Silva de Goes (Unknown Injury)
- Potential for Both Teams to Score: The pipeline analysis indicates a 61% probability that both teams will score and an 82% probability for over 1.5 goals, which could imply an open game with conceded goals for the favorite
概述
Mallorca (18th place, 28 points) host Real Madrid (2nd place, 69 points) at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga on April 4, 2026, 4:15 PM
The mathematical analysis indicates Real Madrid as favorites with a 49% probability of an away win
Mallorca is fighting relegation, while Real Madrid is competing for the league title
近期状态
Mallorca's form in the last five matches is LLDWL
This translates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Mallorca's last appearance was a loss
The form trend is analyzed as negative
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Real Madrid shows an impressive form of WWWWW in their last five matches
They recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses
Their last game ended in a win
Real Madrid's form trend is rated as positive
统计数据
Mallorca scores an average of 1.17 goals per game this season and concedes 1.62 goals
They kept 3 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 19 games, and 19 games had over 2.5 goals
Real Madrid has a season average of 2.17 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded
The team achieved 11 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 16 games, and 18 games ended with over 2.5 goals
In home games, Mallorca scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.00 goals
Real Madrid scores an average of 2.25 goals in away games and concedes 1.17 goals
历史交锋
In the last five head-to-head matches, Mallorca has 0 wins, Real Madrid has 4 wins, and there was 1 draw
Mallorca scored 3 goals, while Real Madrid scored 7 goals
The last encounter on August 30, 2025, ended in a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid
Real Madrid has dominated recent meetings
关键球员
For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi (Attacker) is a key player with 18 goals and 1 assist this season and an average rating of 7.19
He scored 2 goals in his last 5 games
Samú Costa (Midfielder) has 5 goals and a rating of 6.83, with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Pablo Torre (Midfielder) has 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.73, with 2 goals in the last 5 games
For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé (Attacker) stands out with 23 goals and 4 assists this season and a rating of 7.81
He scored 1 goal in the last 5 games
Arda Güler (Midfielder) provided 4 goals and 8 assists with a rating of 7.38, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Dean Huijsen (Defender) has 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.05, with 1 goal in the last 5 games
门将
Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo Román has played in 24 games with an average rating of 6.81
Mallorca recorded 3 clean sheets this season
For Real Madrid, goalkeeper Andriy Lunin has played in 2 games with an average rating of 6.71
Real Madrid achieved a total of 11 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The Estadi Mallorca Son Moix recorded an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals
Mallorca scored an average of 1.17 home goals and conceded 1.00 home goals
Real Madrid scored an average of 2.25 away goals and conceded 1.17 away goals