La Liga
Athletic Club - Villarreal
04/12/2026, 07:00 PM
预期进球
1.1
2.0
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
15%1:0
12%0:1
11%2:0
7%xG 分解
Athletic Club
Villarreal
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
35%
平局
34%
客胜
31%
进球数
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
双重机会
主胜或平局
69%
客胜或平局
65%
非平局
66%
双方进球
是
42%
否
58%
关键因素
- Villarreal's significantly better season performance and higher league position (3rd place vs 11th place)
- Athletic Club's poor current form with only one win and four losses in their last five games, coupled with low goal production (avg. 0.4 goals)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very tight, low-scoring game with a 34% probability for a draw and only 33% for over 2.5 goals
风险因素
- Villarreal is missing Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro, Nicolas Pépé, and Alfonso Pedraza, leaving only 63% of their goal threat available
- Villarreal concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
概述
Athletic Club (11th place, 38 points) hosts Villarreal (3rd place, 58 points) at San Mamés Barria. The La Liga match takes place on April 12, 2026, at 9:00 PM. Athletic Club aims to close the gap in the standings, while Villarreal looks to defend its top position.
近期状态
Athletic Club shows a weak trend with a form of LLLWL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses) from all competitions, with the last game ending in a loss. Villarreal has a form of LWDWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and also lost their last match. The home side has won only one of their last five matches, while the visitors recorded two wins.
统计数据
Athletic Club scores an average of 1.07 goals and concedes 1.43 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.06 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per game. Villarreal is stronger offensively with an average of 1.8 goals per game but concedes 1.17 goals. Away from home, Villarreal scores 1.82 goals and concedes 2.0 goals per game. At San Mamés Barria, an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game. Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were seen in 3 out of 5 matches.
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Athletic Club, 1 win for Villarreal, and 2 draws. The goal difference is 6:4 in favor of Athletic Club. The last encounter on September 27, 2025, ended in a 1:0 victory for Villarreal.
关键球员
For Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta (6 goals, 1 assist), Oihan Sancet (3 goals, 0 assists) with rising form, and Dani Vivian (1 goal, 0 assists) are important players. For Villarreal, Gerard Moreno (8 goals, 0 assists), Santi Comesaña (3 goals, 5 assists), and Tajon Buchanan (6 goals, 1 assist) are key players. Not nominated for Athletic Club is Álex Berenguer (2 goals/3 assists).
门将
Athletic Club's goalkeeper Unai Simón has recorded 5 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.77. Luiz Júnior, Villarreal's goalkeeper, has 8 clean sheets and an average rating of 6.9. Unai Simón's form is stable, while Luiz Júnior's form is declining.
影响因素
Athletic Club scores an average of 1.06 home goals and concedes 0.94 home goals per game, indicating a slight home advantage. San Mamés Barria stadium sees an average of 2.8 goals per game. In 60% of the last 5 matches at San Mamés, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were registered.