La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Real Sociedad
04/26/2026, 12:00 PM
预期进球
1.9
2.9
1.1
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
6%1:2
6%xG 分解
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
54%
平局
25%
客胜
20%
进球数
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
双重机会
主胜或平局
80%
客胜或平局
46%
非平局
75%
双方进球
是
57%
否
43%
关键因素
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Rayo Vallecano with a 54% probability
- Defensive strength vs. Away weakness: Rayo Vallecano's strong home defense (Avg. 0.58 goals conceded) meets Real Sociedad's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.18 goals conceded)
- Home form advantage: Rayo Vallecano showed better form in recent home matches with 3 wins from their last 3 home games
风险因素
- Limited goal threat for Rayo Vallecano: Only 68% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Jorge de Frutos (10G/1A) and Álvaro García (4G/5A)
- Short recovery for Rayo Vallecano: The team has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Weak away defense: Real Sociedad concedes an average of 2.18 goals per away game
概述
Rayo Vallecano (12th place, 38 points) host Real Sociedad (8th place, 42 points) at the Estadio de Vallecas. The La Liga match is on April 26, 2026, 2:00 PM. Rayo Vallecano is fighting for stability in the mid-table, while Real Sociedad is striving for European qualification spots.
近期状态
Rayo Vallecano's form in their last five games is WWLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses. Real Sociedad, on the other hand, shows a form of LWDDL, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches.
统计数据
Rayo Vallecano averages 0.95 goals per home game and concedes only 0.58 goals. They kept 7 home clean sheets. Real Sociedad averages 1.55 goals away but concedes a high 2.18 goals per away game, achieving only 1 away clean sheet. At Estadio de Vallecas, an average of 1.6 goals are scored per game, and only 1 out of 5 matches saw both teams score, also only 1 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 1 win for Real Sociedad, and 2 draws. The goal difference is balanced at 6:6. The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended in a 1-0 away victory for Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad.
关键球员
For Rayo Vallecano, Florian Lejeune (average rating 7.08, 1 assist), Isi Palazón (3 goals, 3 assists), and Andrei Rațiu (3 assists, rising form) are key players. For Real Sociedad, Mikel Oyarzabal (12 goals, 3 assists), Carlos Soler (4 goals, 3 assists), and Takefusa Kubo (2 goals, 4 assists) are the standout performers.
门将
Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper Dani Cárdenas has an average rating of 7.01 in 2 season appearances and contributed to the team's 10 clean sheets. Álex Remiro of Real Sociedad has an average rating of 6.78 in 32 season appearances and was involved in 3 clean sheets.
影响因素
Rayo Vallecano shows a clear home advantage, conceding a low 0.58 goals per home game. The Estadio de Vallecas is known for tending towards low-scoring matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game, only 1 in 5 matches with both teams scoring, and only 1 in 5 matches ending with over 2.5 goals.