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La Liga

Celta de Vigo - Elche

05/03/2026, 12:00 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Celta de Vigo
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Elche
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
xG 分解
CDVELC

Celta de Vigo

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.73倍)
-0.33
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.33
状态下滑 (0.4 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.33
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.22
排名优势 (第6位 vs 第14位, 相差8位)
+0.05
Borja Iglesias替补席 (12球, 2助攻)
Óscar Mingueza替补席 (1球, 4助攻)
Pablo Durán替补席 (2球, 2助攻)

Elche

排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第6位, 相差8位)
-0.09
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.03
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.74倍)
-0.03
Rafa Mir未进大名单 (8球, 0助攻)
Germán Valera未进大名单 (4球, 4助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

30%

客胜

26%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

74%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

70%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Contrasting forms: Celta de Vigo recorded five consecutive losses, while Elche won four of their last five matches
  • Visiting team's defensive weakness: Elche concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game, making their defense vulnerable
  • Model prediction: Despite Celta de Vigo's poor form, the mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 43% probability and 1.37 expected home goals
风险因素
  • Celta de Vigo's offensive struggles: The home team averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • High goal average at the stadium: Estadio de Balaídos saw an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches, suggesting an open game
概述

Celta de Vigo (6th place, 44 points) hosts Elche (14th place, 38 points) at Estadio de Balaídos

La Liga match on May 3, 2026, 2:00 PM

Celta de Vigo aims to consolidate its position in the European qualification spots, while Elche strives to move away from the relegation zone

近期状态

Celta de Vigo shows a concerning form with five losses in their last five games (L L L L L)

Recent results include a 1-2 away loss against Villarreal and a 0-1 away loss against FC Barcelona

At home, Celta lost 1-3 to SC Freiburg and 0-3 to Real Oviedo

Elche, on the other hand, presents strong form with four wins and one loss in their last five games (W L W W W)

The team won 2-1 away against Real Oviedo and 3-2 at home against Atlético Madrid

They defeated Valencia 1-0 at home and Mallorca 2-1 at home

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Celta de Vigo averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded

Elche recorded an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Elche conceded an average of 2.67 goals per game while scoring 1.33

At Estadio de Balaídos, the last five matches saw an average of 3.8 total goals per game

In 80% of these games, both teams scored (BTTS), and in 80% there were over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

There has only been one direct encounter between these two teams so far

Elche won this away match 2-1 on September 28, 2025

Historically, Elche dominated in this sole meeting

关键球员

Celta de Vigo relies on Ferran Jutglà, who contributed 7 goals and 2 assists this season, but recently showed a declining form

Iago Aspas scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season and maintains a stable form

Hugo Álvarez contributed 3 goals and 1 assist to the offense, showing stable form

Not nominated are Borja Iglesias (12 goals, 2 assists), Óscar Mingueza (1 goal, 4 assists), and Pablo Durán (2 goals, 2 assists)

For Elche, André Silva is the top scorer with 9 goals and shows stable form, with 2 goals in his last 4 games

Álvaro Rodríguez shined with 5 goals and 5 assists, but his form is declining

Aleix Febas scored 2 goals and 3 assists, his form is stable

Not nominated are Rafa Mir (8 goals, 0 assists) and Germán Valera (4 goals, 4 assists)

门将

Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper, Ionuț Radu, recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Ionuț Radu's current form is declining

Elche's goalkeeper Matías Dituro registered 7 clean sheets this season

Matías Dituro shows stable form

影响因素

Estadio de Balaídos is known for high-scoring encounters, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last five matches

80% of games saw both teams score and 80% had over 2.5 goals

Celta de Vigo averages 1.35 goals scored at home but concedes 1.41 goals

Elche struggles defensively away from home, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game

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