La Liga
Valencia - Atlético Madrid
05/02/2026, 02:15 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%xG 分解
Valencia
Atlético Madrid
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
44%
平局
29%
客胜
27%
进球数
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
双重机会
主胜或平局
73%
客胜或平局
56%
非平局
71%
双方进球
是
55%
否
45%
关键因素
- Critical weakening of Atlético Madrid: Only 28% of usual goal threat available without Julián Alvarez, Giuliano Simeone, Antoine Griezmann, Koke, Marcos Llorente, Matteo Ruggeri, Ademola Lookman
- Mathematical analysis forecast: Valencia is favored with a home win probability of 44%
- Valencia's home strength: Only 0.90 goals conceded per home game, contrasting with Atlético's weak away defense conceding 1.91 goals per game
风险因素
- Atlético Madrid with only 3 days rest since their last match
- Atlético Madrid concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game
概述
Valencia (12th place, 39 points) host Atlético Madrid (4th place, 60 points) at the Estadio de Mestalla. The La Liga match takes place on May 2, 2026, 4:15 PM. Valencia are fighting to catch up to the mid-table, while Atlético aims to consolidate their Champions League spot.
近期状态
Valencia's form in their last five league games is WLLDW, consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last result was a win. Atlético Madrid's form in their last five competitive matches is LDLWD, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their most recent game ended in a draw. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Valencia averages 1.12 goals scored per game and concedes 1.45 goals. At home, these figures improve to 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per home game. Atlético Madrid is stronger offensively with an average of 1.70 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game. Away from home, the Madrid side concedes 1.91 goals per game. At the Estadio de Mestalla, an average of 3.2 total goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and 60% of games having over 2.5 goals.
历史交锋
In the last five direct encounters, Atlético Madrid dominated with 4 wins, while Valencia secured 1 win. There were no draws. The goal difference is 10:4 in favor of Atlético Madrid. The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Atlético Madrid on December 13, 2025. Although Atlético has been dominant recently, Valencia won their last home match against Atlético 3-0.
关键球员
For Valencia, Largie Ramazani (6 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.84 rating), Umar Sadiq (3 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.73 rating), and Luis Rioja (2 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.83 rating) are crucial. Ramazani scored 2 goals in his last five games. Sadiq also contributed 2 goals and 1 assist. For Atlético Madrid, Thiago Almada (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.81 rating), Nahuel Molina (2 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.76 rating), and Robin Le Normand (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 6.67 rating) are important players.
门将
Valencia's goalkeeper, Stole Dimitrievski, has achieved 8 clean sheets this season. For Atlético Madrid, Juan Musso has recorded 5 clean sheets.
影响因素
The Estadio de Mestalla tends to feature high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals per match. In 60% of games at this stadium, both teams scored, and 60% of games had over 2.5 goals. Valencia displays solid home defense, conceding only 0.90 goals per home game.