La Liga
Athletic Club - Valencia
05/10/2026, 02:15 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%0:1
9%2:1
8%xG 分解
Athletic Club
Valencia
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
40%
平局
32%
客胜
28%
进球数
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
双重机会
主胜或平局
72%
客胜或平局
60%
非平局
68%
双方进球
是
47%
否
53%
关键因素
- Mathematical analysis: The model predicts a home win for Athletic Club with 40% probability and 1.24 expected goals
- Away defensive weakness: Valencia concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away game
- Home team's form trend: Athletic Club shows a positive trend, scoring 1.6 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
风险因素
- High draw probability: The model calculates a 32% probability for a draw
- Valencia's offensive struggles: Valencia's current goal production is 1.0 goals per game, below their season average of 1.3 goals
- Athletic Club's increasing defensive vulnerability: Athletic Club recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game, compared to 1.59 in the season average
概述
Athletic Club (9th place, 44 points) host Valencia (14th place, 39 points) at San Mamés Barria
La Liga match on May 10, 2026, 4:15 PM
Both teams are battling in the mid-table, with Athletic Club in a stronger position
近期状态
Athletic Club's recent form in the last five games is LLWLW, consisting of 2 wins and 3 losses
Athletic Club won their last match 4-2 away against Deportivo Alavés
Valencia's form over the last five matches is LLDWL, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Valencia lost their last match 0-2 at home against Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals), indicating a positive form trend
Valencia's goal production is struggling (1.0 goals), below their season average of 1.3 goals
统计数据
Athletic Club scores an average of 1.18 goals per game and concedes 1.47 goals per game this season
At home, Athletic Club scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.06 goals per home game
Valencia scores an average of 1.09 goals per game and concedes 1.47 goals per game this season
Away from home, Valencia scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 2.23 goals per away game
Athletic Club recorded 6 clean sheets this season, while Valencia recorded 8
San Mamés Barria sees an average of 2.2 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches at this stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches
历史交锋
In 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic Club won 3 times, Valencia won 2 times, with no draws
Athletic Club scored a total of 4 goals in these encounters, while Valencia also scored 4 goals
The last encounter on February 4, 2026, ended in a 2-1 away victory for Athletic Club against Valencia
关键球员
Gorka Guruzeta is a key player for Athletic Club with 9 goals and 3 assists this season
His form is rising with 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.16
Nico Williams scored 6 goals and 3 assists this season, his form is also rising with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.18
Robert Navarro contributed 6 goals and 1 assist, with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a rating of 6.70
Hugo Duro is an important attacker for Valencia with 9 season goals, but his form is declining with 0 goals in the last 5 games (rating 6.44)
Guido Rodríguez shows stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.04
Javi Guerra contributed 1 goal and 5 assists this season, providing 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.71
门将
Unai Simón is the goalkeeper for Athletic Club and has recorded 6 clean sheets this season
Stole Dimitrievski is the goalkeeper for Valencia and has kept 8 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Athletic Club shows a solid home performance, scoring an average of 1.17 goals and conceding 1.06 goals
Valencia struggles away from home, with an average of 1.08 goals scored and 2.23 goals conceded
San Mamés Barria averages 2.2 goals per game