La Liga
Osasuna - Atlético Madrid
05/12/2026, 07:30 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%xG 分解
Osasuna
Atlético Madrid
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
50%
平局
29%
客胜
20%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
80%
客胜或平局
50%
非平局
71%
双方进球
是
47%
否
53%
关键因素
- Pipeline prediction: The model projects a home win for Osasuna with 50% probability and 1.51 expected goals
- Atlético's recent form and absences: Goal production has dropped to 1.2 goals, and key players like Giuliano Simeone are missing (76% of the usual starting XI's scoring strength is available)
- Osasuna's home strength vs. Atlético's away weakness: Osasuna concedes only 0.83 goals per home game, while Atlético concedes an average of 1.75 goals away from home
风险因素
- Away team fatigue: Atlético Madrid has had only 3 days rest since their last match
- Limited attacking threat for the away team: Giuliano Simeone is missing, with only 76% of the usual starting XI's scoring strength available
- Osasuna's declining offense: The team's goal production stagnates at an average of 1.2 goals per game, compared to the season average of 1.6 goals
概述
Osasuna (11th place, 42 points) host Atlético Madrid (4th place, 63 points) at Estadio El Sadar. The La Liga match takes place on May 12, 2026, 9:30 PM. Atlético aims to solidify their Champions League spot, while Osasuna is in mid-table with less pressure. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 50% probability, a draw with 29%, and an away win with 21%
近期状态
Osasuna's form across all competitions is DLWLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). They have suffered two consecutive defeats recently. Their last five games include a 2-3 loss against Levante and a 1-2 loss against FC Barcelona. Atlético Madrid shows a form of WDWLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and also recorded two consecutive losses. Their recent matches include a 0-1 loss against Celta de Vigo and a 0-1 loss against Arsenal
统计数据
Osasuna has scored an average of 1.21 home goals per game this season and conceded 0.83 goals. Across the entire season, they have scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.29 goals per game. Both teams scored in 19 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 matches. Atlético Madrid averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded per away game. Overall, they scored 1.66 goals and conceded 1.09 goals per game. Both teams scored in 18 of Atlético's matches, and 17 matches had over 2.5 goals. At Estadio El Sadar, the last 5 games averaged 2.6 goals per match. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
In 5 previous head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 2 times and Atlético Madrid won 3 times. There have been no draws. Osasuna scored 6 goals in these encounters, while Atlético scored 5. The last meeting on October 18, 2025, ended in a 1-0 away win for Atlético Madrid. The recent head-to-head record indicates away dominance
关键球员
For Osasuna, Ante Budimir is a significant attacker with 17 seasonal goals. Rubén García has proven to be a creator with 5 assists. Alejandro Catena, as a defender, has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists. For Atlético Madrid, Antoine Griezmann is a key attacking player with 7 goals and 2 assists. Thiago Almada scored 3 goals and 1 assist, while Ademola Lookman contributed 2 seasonal goals
门将
In goal for Osasuna is Aitor Fernández, who has made 1 appearance this season. Juan Musso starts for Atlético Madrid, having played 6 seasonal games. Osasuna has kept 7 clean sheets in the league, while Atlético Madrid has 13 clean sheets
影响因素
Estadio El Sadar has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 80% of these games, and 60% had over 2.5 goals. Osasuna shows a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.83 goals. Atlético Madrid concedes an average of 1.75 goals away from home. Weather data is not available