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La Liga

Rayo Vallecano - Villarreal

05/17/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Rayo Vallecano
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Villarreal
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

0:1

8%
xG 分解
RVVIL

Rayo Vallecano

最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第9位 vs 第3位, 相差6位)
-0.09
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.08
Alfonso Espino替补席 (2球, 0助攻)

Villarreal

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.1球)
+0.23
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.15
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.15
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第9位, 相差6位)
+0.03
Georges Mikautadze替补席 (12球, 6助攻)
Nicolas Pépé替补席 (8球, 6助攻)
Gerard Moreno替补席 (10球, 0助攻)
Alfonso Pedraza替补席 (1球, 3助攻)
11%进球产出缺失 (仅97%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.7球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

40%

平局

30%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

60%

非平局

70%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Rayo Vallecano with 40% for a home win, while a draw is calculated at 30% and an away win at 30%
  • Form trend: Rayo Vallecano is unbeaten in 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws, while Villarreal enters the match with a loss
  • Offensive duel: Villarreal currently scores more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.7), while Rayo Vallecano's goal production is stagnant (1.2), with a season average of 1.5
风险因素
  • Rayo Vallecano has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Villarreal concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game
  • Rayo Vallecano's squad strength: not in lineup: Alfonso Espino (2G/0A)
  • Villarreal's squad strength: not in lineup: Georges Mikautadze (12G/6A), Nicolas Pépé (8G/6A), Gerard Moreno (10G/0A), Alfonso Pedraza (1G/3A)
概述

Rayo Vallecano (9th place, 44 points) hosts Villarreal (3rd place, 69 points) at the Estadio de Vallecas. The La Liga match is scheduled for May 17, 2026, 7:00 PM. Villarreal holds a Champions League spot, while Rayo is positioned in the middle of the table.

近期状态

Rayo Vallecano shows strong current form with WWWDD in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). Their last result was a draw. The team has recorded two consecutive draws recently. Villarreal's form in the last five games is DWWDL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Their most recent game ended in a loss.

统计数据

Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes 1.19 goals. At home, they score 1.05 goals and concede only 0.71 goals per home game, with 7 home clean sheets. Villarreal boasts a strong offense with an average of 1.86 goals per game and concedes 1.19 goals. Away from home, Villarreal scores 1.85 goals and concedes an average of 1.92 goals per match, with 3 away clean sheets. The Estadio de Vallecas sees an average of 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches.

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head matches, Villarreal dominates with 3 wins compared to Rayo Vallecano's zero wins, alongside 2 draws. The goal difference is 10:2 in favor of Villarreal. The last encounter was a 4:0 victory for Villarreal on November 1, 2025.

关键球员

For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos (10 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.88) and Alexandre Zurawski (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.64) are important attacking players, with Zurawski showing rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Florian Lejeune (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.11) is a defensive constant. For Villarreal, Alberto Moleiro (10 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.93) stands out. Tajon Buchanan (7 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.74) and Santi Comesaña (3 goals, 6 assists, avg 6.87) also contribute significantly to the offensive threat.

门将

Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has 33 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.89. He has recorded 11 clean sheets throughout the season, 7 of which were in home games. For Villarreal, Arnau Tenas is in goal, achieving an average rating of 6.65 in 8 season games. Villarreal has accumulated 8 clean sheets in total, with 3 of them coming in away matches.

影响因素

Rayo Vallecano exhibits a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 1.05 goals at home and conceding only 0.71 goals. The Estadio de Vallecas typically sees 2.6 goals per game. 40% of matches ended with both teams scoring, and 40% with over 2.5 goals. The grass pitch surface is a neutral factor.

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