Our model calculates. You decide.
Most people guess the result. DumbleScore calculates its own probabilities for every match and shows you where the odds are higher than they should be by our numbers. We count these opportunities publicly, including the ones that miss.
- Public record, losses included
- At most one opportunity per match
- Over 20 competitions in 7 languages
Final score 0:3: the opportunity won, the 1:1 xG score did not. An opportunity is about the price, not the exact score.
View analysisThe most recent settled final opportunity on 19 October 2026, not hand-picked.
Since January 2026, one unit per opportunity. Until 13 October 2026 with the previous team model, since then with the player model in league and European competitions, all in the same record. Past results are no guarantee for the future.
View the full recordNothing is glossed over
- Every opportunity from a final analysis in a counted competition counts, with exactly one unit at the odds at the time of the analysis.
- Nothing is changed after kick-off. Losses stay, nothing is deleted.
- Previews never count, only what is created shortly before kick-off with a confirmed line-up.
- Competitions in trial mode are marked in the Match Center and do not count.
One match, five steps
From the first look to the review: this is how DumbleScore follows every match.
- 1–2 days before
Preview
A first assessment based on the expected line-up: probabilities for all markets, no opportunity yet.
- About 40 min. before
Final analysis
As soon as the line-ups are official, the model recalculates with the eleven players who actually start.
- Right after
Opportunity check
We compare our probabilities with the current odds. If the odds are clearly above our fair price, an opportunity is created.
- During the match
Live
Score, statistics and (if the match is in your plan or you have unlocked it) the probability of another goal, recalculated continuously.
- After the final whistle
Review
We compare the xG score with the score after 90 minutes and enter the opportunity in the public record.
When an opportunity is created
An opportunity does not say who wins. It says: the price is better than it should be by our numbers.
Fair market price
We take the odds from Pinnacle, one of the sharpest markets (if they are missing, those from Bet365), and remove the margin.
Clear edge
Measured against the fair price without margin, the edge must be at least 3 to 8% depending on the odds: the higher the odds, the more.
Strict filters
No very short odds, no extreme values, no draws. At most one opportunity per match.
Edge =our probability ×odds −1
In the example above42.4% × 2.57 − 1 = +9%
Many matches have no opportunity. "No edge" is an answer too, and an honest one.
What the model calculates
It is based on data, not opinions: the strength of both teams and the ratings of the eleven players who actually start. This is how the final analysis has worked in league and European competitions since 13 October 2026; cup matches, internationals and incomplete line-ups are calculated with team values.
What goes in
- Team strength, home advantage and the league's scoring level
- The ratings of every player in the starting eleven from up to two years of club football; recent matches count more
- Role and opponent: a striker is measured against strikers, and it matters against whom his numbers were produced
- Form in recent appearances and workload: rest days, minutes played, returning players
- The opposing goalkeeper
What comes out
- Expected goals (xG) for both teams
- Probabilities for win, draw, double chance, over/under and "both teams to score"
- The xG score and the most likely scores
DumbleScore calculates the numbers. An AI summarises the most important factors in your language. It does not calculate a single number.
What you get
Start for free with three matches per week, new every week. For more matches and tools there are three plans.
Free
3 matches per week with full analysis and opportunity.
Scout
All league matches in two leagues of your choice.
Oracle
All leagues, cups and European competitions.
Alchemist
Everything in Oracle, plus outliers, arbitrage and notifications for new final analyses and opportunities.
With a free account, live matches from minute 61 and finished matches never use one of your 3 slots.
Compare plansMore than analyses
Signals
Where individual providers deviate clearly from the market: outliers and arbitrage. In the Alchemist plan.
Claude & ChatGPT
Ask DumbleScore about matches, analyses and opportunities directly in your AI chat.
Watchlist
With a subscription: save matches and opportunities and follow them live.
Community
Questions about the model or the record? Ask the founder directly in the Telegram group.
Frequently asked questions
Why isn't there an opportunity for every match?
We only show an opportunity when we rate an outcome clearly more likely than the fair market price does. Often model and market are too close together or a filter applies. Then it says "No edge".
Why does the final analysis only come shortly before kick-off?
Line-ups are usually confirmed 30 to 60 minutes before kick-off. Only then does the model calculate with the players who actually play and with fresh odds. On average the final is ready about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Does an AI calculate the predictions?
No. All numbers come from our statistical model. The AI only writes the key and risk factors in your language.
How do you count the record?
Every opportunity from a final analysis in a counted competition counts with one unit at the odds at the time of the analysis, wins and losses alike. Previews and matches in trial mode do not count. The full record by month, market and league is on the performance page.
What can I use for free?
With a free account, three matches per week with full analysis and opportunity. Live matches from minute 61 and finished matches never use one of those 3 slots.
Does DumbleScore make the decision for me?
No. You see probability, odds and edge. The decision is yours.
Will I get the odds shown with my provider too?
Not always. Opportunities and the record are calculated with the Pinnacle odds at the time of the analysis (if they are missing, with Bet365). Other providers are often lower; you choose which providers you see in the Match Center.
What are xG and the xG score?
xG are the expected goals: how many goals a team scores in this match by our numbers. The xG score is rounded from that: rounded down, only rounded up from .9.
Ready for the next match?
Three matches per week are free, with full analysis and opportunity.