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Serie A

Udinese - Como

08/22/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Udinese
1.0
Total xG
2.0
Como
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

0:1

12%

1:0

11%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
UDICOM

Udinese

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.04
Arthur Atta not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Christian Kabasele not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Thomas Kristensen not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Adam Buksa on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Lennon Miller on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Kingsley Ehizibue not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Como

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.20
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Marc Oliver Kempf on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Ɓlex Valle on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Como: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Udinese with NicolĆ² Zaniolo: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Como with Ignace Van der Brempt: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Como: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

34%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Highly balanced model forecast with a 31% home win and 35% away win probability
  • Como dominated play recently, averaging 62% possession and 4.8 shots on target per match
  • Low-scoring matches at the Dacia Arena, averaging just 1.0 goals per game over the last five fixtures
Risk Factors
  • Como plays its first competitive match of the new season after a long 90-day break
  • Udinese has to play without the suspended C. Kabasele and the injured A. Zanoli
  • Udinese's goal production has stalled with only 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.2
Overview

Udinese hosts Como at the Dacia Arena

Serie A match on August 22, 2026, 5:30 PM

Opening matchday of the new season

Highly balanced matchup expected according to the calculations

Form

Udinese's recent form stands at WWLLW

Three wins and two losses in their summary

Como shows a strong form of WDWWW

The away side is unbeaten in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Udinese averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded last season

Como averaged 1.71 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded

Como secured 19 clean sheets in the previous campaign

Udinese recorded six clean sheets in their home matches

Head-to-Head

Four head-to-head matches in history

One win for Udinese, two wins for Como, and one draw

The last encounter ended in a 0:0 draw on April 6, 2026

Como scored five goals in these matches compared to Udinese's two

Key Players

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp is on a rising trend with one goal and two assists in his last four matches

Keinan Davis contributed 10 goals and 4 assists last season

Lucas Da Cunha recorded two goals and one assist in his last five appearances

Goalkeepers

Maduka Okoye kept 11 clean sheets last season

Jean Butez played 38 matches and recorded 19 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers established themselves as reliable starters

Influences

Low-scoring games at the Dacia Arena with an average of 1.0 goals per match

Zero out of the last five home matches exceeded 2.5 goals

Udinese has the home advantage playing on natural grass

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